Study of socio-economic phenomenon using decision process analysis

本研究的目的是运用多种心理学方法考察社会经济环境中的权变判断和决策过程，并建立心理测量模型和数学模型。决策过程可以在我们的社会生活和社会经济现象中观察到。人们在社会经济环境中的各种情况下作出判断或决定。研究他们的决策过程被认为是理解社会经济现象的有效途径，效用理论是解释各种决策现象的代表性理论体系。它使用数学方法，经常被引入政治经济学领域的消费者活动研究。虽然效用理论可以解释大多数决策现象，但由于问题描述、决策过程和外部任务因素，它不能完全解释权变决策。例如，正如特沃斯基和卡尼曼所示，即使完全相同， ...更多信息 在同一客观情境中形成不同的备选方案时，所做出的决策可能会有所不同，这取决于心理表征的产生方式。第二，由于效用理论（包括等级依赖效用理论等非线性效用理论）经常被违反，本研究提出了新的权变决策定性模型。第三，运用社会调查研究、访谈法和理论分析等方法，发现了社会情境的基本类型和判断决策的语境。第四，通过心理学实验，我们发现了社会环境中权变判断和决策的定性和定量特征。第五，运用心理学实验中的过程追踪技术，我们发现了风险判断和决策中认知过程的定性特征。最后，基于实验和社会调查的实证研究结果，我们利用模糊集理论和数学模型建立了描述社会经济环境中权变判断和决策的心理测量模型，并在国际和国内学术会议上进行了报告。其中一些研究结果发表在学术期刊上。少

The purpose of this study was to examine contingent judgment and decision making process in socio-economic environments using several psychological methods, and to make psychometric models, and mathematical models. Decision making process can be observed in our social lives and socio-economic phenomenon. People judge or make decisions in various situations in socio-economic settings. Investigation of their decision making process is considered to be effective for understanding socio-economic phenomenon.Utility theory is a representative system for explaining various decision making phenomena. It uses mathematical methods and is introduced frequently in consumer activity research in the field of political economy. Although utility theory can explain most decision making phenomena, it cannot completely explain contingent decision making due to problem description, decision procedure, and external task factors. For example, as Tversky and Kahneman illustrated, even if the completely same … More alternatives are formed in the same objective situation, the decision made may be different, depending on the way in which a mental representation is created.This study first explained why utility theory cannot completely explain contingent decision making. Secondly, new qualitative models of contingent decision making were proposed in this study, since utility theories (including such nonlinear utility theories as the rank-dependent utility theory) are often violated as pointed out above. Thirdly, we found basic types of social situations and contexts of judgment and decision-making using social survey research, interview methods, and theoretical analysis. Fourthly, we found qualitative and quantitative properties of contingent judgment and decision-making in social environments using several psychological experiments. Fifthly, we found qualitative properties of cognitive process in risk judgment and decision-making using process-tracing techniques in psychological experiments. Finally, based on the empirical findings through experiments and social survey, we made psychometric models using fuzzy set theory and mathematical models to describe contingent judgment and decision-making in socio-economic environments.These findings were reported at international and domestic academic meetings. Some of the findings were published in academic journals. Less