Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production Structure in Arid Areas

本研究是ICCAP在RIHN的补充研究。ICCAP：气候变化对干旱地区农业生产的影响。我们从以下几个方面对气候变化的影响进行了研究。(1)农业部门模型(Kameyama)利用土耳其联合研究员开发的ASM，我们探索了以经济福利最大化为目标函数和四个地区的资源约束建立的校准模型的影响框架。它是由农作物、牲畜组成的粮食供需空间均衡。在模拟部分，京都ICCAP的准试验结果基本上是尝试用主要农作物的产量变化作为影响因素。(2)作物生长模型中的生物物理模型(Ozan Eruygur)在Konnya的应用。CropSyst是一个多年、每日时间步长的作物生长模拟模型。其目的是为研究种植制度管理对作物生产力和环境的影响提供一个分析工具。CropSyst模拟了土壤水分收支、土壤-植物氮素收支、作物物候、作物冠层和根系生长、生物量生产、作物产量、残留物生产和分解、土壤水分侵蚀和农药去向。(3)投入产出表分析农村产业结构的相互关系(Kagatsum)使用1985、1990和1996年的原始投入产出表。按非农村部门汇总，该表汇总为24个工业部门、6个最终需求部门和4个增值部门。作为近期日本文章中的一些启示，它根据ICCAP中计量小组的长期预测状况给出了2030年的预测。

This research is the supplemental one of ICCAP in RIHN. ICCAP : Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Production in Arid Region. We investigate the impact of Climate Change in the following issues.(1)Agricultural Sector Model (Kameyama)Using ASM developed by co-researcher in Turkey, we explored the framework to investigate the impact The calibration model was set up with maximizing economic welfare as objective function and resource constraints for four regions. It is the space equilibrium of demand & supply of food, consisted of crops, livestock. In simulation part, the results of quasi-experiment in ICCAP in Kyoto was basically attempted to use the impacts are the yield change for major crops.(2)Bio-physical models (Ozan Eruygur)One of the crop growth models is applied in Konnya. CropSyst is a multi-year, daily time step crop growth simulation model. Its object is to provide an analytical tool to study the effect of cropping systems management on crop productivity and the environment. CropSyst simulates the soil water budget, soil-plant nitrogen budget, crop phenology, crop canopy and the root growth, biomass production, crop yield, residue production and decomposition, soil erosion by water, and pesticide fate. As one of the output, the yield changes of major crops are available.(3)Interrelations among rural industries structure by Input-Output Table Analysis (Kagatsume)Original Input-Output tables in 1985, 1990 and 1996 are used. By aggregating non-rural sectors, the table aggregated to 24 industry sector, 6 final demand sectors and 4 value added sectors. As some implications in recent Japanese article, it gives prediction in 2030 based on the long term forecast status by Metrological group in ICCAP.