Simulation of educational trajectories under consideration of latent decision-making processes

在这个子项目中，一个模拟为基础的有条不紊的过程是要开发，它允许假设的教育进展和潜在的决策过程，以映射在学校的过渡。众所周知，在德国，获得某种教育资格的途径在很大程度上取决于儿童转入的中学类型（以及其他Baumert等人，2010年）。因此，该项目侧重于从小学到中学的过渡。在这一过渡时期，社会和族裔血统的影响持续存在了几十年。研究表明，在从小学到中学的基本过渡中，与移民有关的差异占主导地位（以及其他Dollmann，2016年）。最近，德国各联邦州开始通过大量学校改革来减少与所获得的教育质量相关的社会差距。为了查明这些改革所带来的结构性条件的变化是否对过渡决定有明显的影响，必须对它们进行详细的审查。该子项目的基本思想是，不仅要从经验上描述教育系统中这些结构上有趣的转变，而且要在分析中包括一个行为模型（这里是计划行为理论Fishbein und Ajzen，2010）。为此，相关的教育决策将被转移到一个正式的数学模型，或操作，同时考虑到理论模型。为了能够精确地近似潜在的真实的现象，应该根据经验数据来估计转移概率。如果这是不可能的，因为感兴趣的机制要么是不可观察的，要么是在未来，有关的过渡概率是根据假设推导出来的。具体而言，决策过程将被检查，同时考虑到影响向中学过渡的不断变化的背景。将使用假设情景来支持这一分析。因此，该项目不仅将研究改革对现有学生的学校过渡决定的影响，而且还将预测改革对未来学生以及沿着社会和族裔群体的决定的影响。

In this subproject, a simulation-based methodical process is to be developed, which allows hypothetical educational progression and latent decision-making processes to be mapped in school transitions. It is known that the path to a certain educational qualification in Germany is largely determined at an early age by the type of secondary school to which a child transfers (and others Baumert et al., 2010). Therefore, the project focuses on the transition from elementary school to secondary school. At this transition, the persistence of social and ethnic origin effects has been observed for decades. Studies have shown that migration related differences predominate in the fundamental transition from primary school to secondary school (and others Dollmann, 2016). An attempt to reduce social disparities in relation to the educational qualifications achieved has recently been initiated in various federal states in Germany through numerous school reforms. In order to find out whether the changes in structural conditions brought about by these reforms have a noticeable influence on the transition decision, they must be examined in detail. The basic idea of the subproject is to not only describe these structurally interesting transitions in the education system empirically, but to include a behavioral model (here the Theory of Planned Behavior Fishbein und Ajzen, 2010) in the analysis. To this end, the relevant educational decisions will be transferred to a formal mathematical model, or operationalized, whilst taking the theoretical model into account. To enable an accurate approximation of the underlying real phenomenon, transition probabilities should be estimated from empirical data. Where this is not possible, because the mechanisms of interest are either not observable or are in the future, the transition probabilities concerned are derived based on hypotheses. Specifically, the decision-making processes are to be examined whilst accounting for the changing contexts that affect the transition to a secondary school. This analysis will be supported using what-if scenarios. The project will therefore not only study the effect of reforms on the school transition decisions of existing pupils, but also with anticipating the effect of reforms on the decisions of future pupils along social and ethnic groups.