Dynamic spatial modeling of movement patterns by urban migrants

本研究旨在从随机行走的观点出发，建立一个城市流动人口的动态空间模型。这个公式意味着从概率的角度来理解城市间迁移的传统重力模型。对于这一提法，不可避免地要界定移民所处的有限空间效应和纯粹的移民行为特征：前者被称为“空间配置”。“为了建立模型，我们采用实地调查和数值分析的方法来研究澳大利亚珀斯和日本福井等城市的移民模式。(1)在澳大利亚珀斯进行的实地调查中，在统计和规划办公室、西澳大利亚大学图书馆和公共图书馆收集了Au全国人口普查的统计数据、地图、城市规划和住房市场的政府资料等。关于中心区居民和农村居民的典型迁移职业， ...更多信息 与西澳大学的地理学家进行了讨论。(a)根据福井市政府记录的居住迁移的非汇总数据（1998-2001年）和全国人口普查的汇总迁移数据（全日本、福井、东京和秋田），分析了不同年龄组的城市内和城市间迁移的频率和空间格局。流动性及其随年龄的变化、迁移距离和迁移方向受性别差异的影响，在大都市区和非大都市区之间也存在差异。(b)进行了模拟实验，以了解概率条件下的迁移模式及其结果，即，连续和均匀的空间和移民的随机移动。对于所有的流动，他们的起源和目的地被标在地图上，以了解移民的空间分布，并测量距离和方向。研究结果提出了空间上人类迁移行为的动态模型和聚落形成的随机过程模型。少

This research project aims to formulate a dynamic spatial model of urban migrants in space from the viewpoint of random-walk. This formulation means to understand the conventional gravity model for inter-urban migrations from the probabilistic viewpoint. For the formulation, it is inevitable to define the effects of limited space in which migrants move, and purely behavioral characteristics of migrants : the former is referred to as "spatial configuration." In order to formulate the model, field survey and numerical analysis were employed to examine migration patterns in Perth, Australia, and Fukui and other Japanese cities.(1) In the field survey conducted in Perth, Australia, statistics of AU national census, maps, governmental materials of urban planning and housing markets etc. were collected at statistical and planning offices and Library of University of Western Australia and public libraries. With respect to typical migration careers of the central-district residents and suburba … More n residents, discussion was done with geographers of WA University.(a) Based on non-aggregated data of residential shifts recorded by Fukui municipal office (1998-2001) and aggregated migration data of National Census (whole Japan, Fukui, Tokyo, and Akita), frequencies and spatial patterns of intra-urban and inter-urban migrations by different age-groups were analyzed. Mobility and their changes with age, and migration distance and direction indicated were affected by gender differences, and also different between metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions. (b) Simulation experiments were carried out to know migration patterns and their outcomes under the probabilistic conditions, i.e., continuous and homogeneous space and random movement by migrants. For all movements, their origins and destinations were plotted on a map to read spatial distributions of migrants, and the distance and direction were measured. Results from this research suggest a dynamic model of human migration behavior in a space, and a stochastic process model of settlement formation. Less