Development of an Expert System for the Management of Pollutant Run-Off from Basin

本研究开发了一个专家系统，用于支持排污池污染负荷的估算，为排污池的管理提供合理决策。对当代污染负荷估算方法的审查表明，这些方法不是基于自我净化的科学知识，也不是引用以前研究中的基本信息的可靠依据。因此，对于大多数湖泊管理者来说，自己估计污染负荷并不容易。因此，他们很难提出管理计划，也很难得到各方的批准。该系统开发了在个人电脑上进行工作，并使管理人员在这方面缺乏学术知识的情况下进行污染物负荷估计。系统的主要功能有：1)排污流域和行政区配置输入；2)污染物单位负荷和排污百分比输入；3)单位负荷启发式数据库管理；4)根据河流特征计算入湖河流自净率；5)支持负荷验证和修正；6)自动计算产生、排放和入湖污染负荷；7)基于污染负荷模拟入湖水质。该系统基于BASIC语言和部分汇编语言开发，并在冈玉湖流域进行了全流域的社会经济活动调查，对系统进行了验证和系统论证。磷负荷的最大来源是森林，而水产养殖和旅游业等文化来源估计不容忽视。还审查了行政信息，并将其用作所开发系统的输入数据库，以供演示。该系统虽然不够完善，但已基本满足污染负荷估算的要求。

An expert system to supporttestimation of pollution load fron discharge basin and to enable rational decis ion making for their management is developed in this study. Revie on the contemporary method for the estimation of pollution load made it clear that they were not based on scientific knowledge of self-purification, nor reliable creteria for the citation of basic information from previous studies. It was not easy for most of lake managers, therefore, to estimate pollution load by themselves. Consequently, it was difficult for them to present management plans and get approval from various circles.The system developed works on personal computers and enables pollutant load estimation for managers with little academic knowledge on this subject. Major functions in the system are: 1)input of the configuration on discharge basin and administrative districts, 2)input of unit loads of pollutants and percent discharge, 3)heuristic data-base management on unit loads for reference, 4)calculation on the rate of self-purification in inflow rivers based on characteristic feature of rivers, 5)support for validation and correction of loads, 6)automatic calculation of generated, discharged, and inflow pollution loads, and 7)simulation of in-lake water quality based on the pollution loads. The system was developed based on BASIC language and partly with ASSEMBLY language.Basin-wide survey on social and economic activities were carried out in the basin of Lake Okutama to validate the system and for system demonstration. The largest source of phosphorus loading was forests, whereas cultural sources such as aquaculture and tourism were estimated not to be neglected. Administrative information was also reviewed and used as an input database to the developed system for demonstration. Although not perfect, the system was proved to fulfil basic requirement for the estimation of pollution load.