Econometrics and Psychological Studies on the Future of the Japanese dietary Life

本研究的一个主要目的是运用计量经济学和心理学的方法来预测日本人未来的饮食生活。日本S经济的快速增长始于20世纪50年代中期的S，一直持续到70年代末的S，彻底改变了日本人的饮食模式。日本的这种变化被称为饮食模式的现代化或西方化。但是，现在经济增长已经放缓，日本人在蛋白质、脂肪、碳水化合物(PFC卡路里的组成)方面实现了理想的饮食生活。近年来，欧美国家都很欣赏这种饮食生活。目前，人们认为我们的饮食生活已经达到饱和或成熟阶段。但我们的饮食生活将会在质量方面发生变化。现在，根据长期预测模拟，日本人未来的饮食生活如下：(1)大米和糖的人均消费量减少，(2)肉类和油料的牲畜消费量迅速增加，(3)水果和土豆的消费量增加，(4)小麦、鸡蛋、豆类、水果、鱼等的消费量保持不变或略有变化。因此，日本人的饮食生活将是基于PFC卡路里组成的不平衡饮食。但作为一个大趋势，我们很可能会转向质量更丰富的饮食。

A major objective of this study is to predict the future of the Japanese dietary life by means of econometrics method and psychological method.Japan' s rapid economic growth, which began in the mid-1950' s and lasted until the late-1970's, changed the dietary pattern of the Japanese people completely. The change in Japan was called the modernization or the westernization of the dietary pattern. But, now that economic growth has been reduced and an ideal dietary life for Japanese in terms of protein, fat, carbohydrate (composition of PFC calorie) achieved. European and American countries have appreciated that dietary life in recent years. At present it is considered that our dietary life has reached the saturation or the maturity stage. But our dietary life will be able to change in a side of quality.Now, according to the longrange forecast simulation the future of the Japanese dietary life are as follows : (1) a decrease in the per capita consumption of rice and sugar, (2) a rapid increase in consumption of livestock for meat and oil, (3) an increase in the consumption of fruits and potatoes, (4) remain on the same level or a small change in the consumption of wheat, egg, pulses, fruits, fish, etc. Consequently the Japanese dietary life will be unbalanced diet on composition of PFC calorie. But as a general trend, it is likely that we will move on to a qualitatively richer diet.