Construction of a universal model for casualty reduction strategies in an earthquake

我们开展了这个为期两年的项目，旨在为减少地震伤亡的区域安全策略开发决策支持系统。我们开发了一个适用于世界任何地区的灾害的通用模型，用于估计地震中的伤亡人数。在此过程中，我们通过一系列实地调查和开发计算机模型来收集数据。我们与英国剑桥大学的一个研究小组建立了伙伴关系，以交流开发所需的知识和材料。在第一年，我们进行了：1。合作项目总体规划：首席研究员访问剑桥大学，为合作研究制定总体框架。三次实地调查：我们访问了中国，收集1976年唐山地震的破坏和重建数据。在1988年亚美尼亚地震和1983年土耳其埃尔祖尔姆地震的受灾地区也做了类似的努力。建立评估模型的一般框架：我们将建筑物倒塌中的人员死亡及其救援过程视为与时间相关的事件，并提出了伤亡评估模型的一般框架。第二年，我们开展了：1。在中国的后续调查：我们访问了唐山，以扩展我们的知识和材料。我们收集了唐山地震救援活动和现有建筑结构质量的详细数据。2 .合作建立建筑破坏模型：日方合作研究员访问剑桥小组，开发建筑倒塌模型，该模型将成为整个模型的重要组成部分。3 .破坏和恢复数据分析：我们继续分析1976年唐山地震、1988年亚美尼亚地震和1983年埃尔祖尔姆地震的数据。日本地震数据收集：我们收集了日本破坏性地震的破坏和重建数据。我们包括了1945年的三川地震和1948年的福井地震。开发评估模型：首先，我们开发了两个详细的框架：1)适用于事件后快速评估的简单模型和2)适用于区域安全详细评估和制定区域安全长期战略的综合模型。对于简单的模型，我们完成了一个原型，并测试了它的性能精度。在综合模型中，我们开发了一些元素模型，包括：1)建筑物倒塌，2)被困人员健康状况恶化，3)救援过程的描述。少

We carried out this two-year project to develop a decision support system for the regional safety strategies toward the reduction of earthquake casualties. We developed a universal model, which is applicable to disasters in any part of the world, for the estimation of deaths and injuries in an earthquake. In doing this, we conducted data gathering through a series of field survey and development of a computer model.We established a partnership with a research group in the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom to exchange knowledge and material needed for the development.In the first year, we carried out :1. General planning for the co-operative project : The principal investigator visited the University of Cambridge to develop a general framework for the co-operative research.2. Three field investigations : We visited China to collect the damage and reconstruction data of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Similar effort was done in the affected areas of the 1988 Armenia earthquake and th … More e 1983 Erzurm, Turkey earthquake.3. Development of general framework for the assessment model : We figured out occupants deaths in a collapsed building and their rescue process as a time related event and proposed it as a general framework of casualty assessment model.In the second year we carried out :1. Follow-up survey in China : we visited Tangshan to extend our knowledge and material. We gathered detailed data on the rescue activities in the Tangshan earthquake and the structural quality of existing buildings.2. Cooperative effort toward a building-damage model : A co-investigator of Japan side visited the Cambridge group for the development of a building-collapse model, which is to be an essential part of the entire model.3. Analysis of damage and recovery data : We continued to analyze the data on the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, the 1988 Armenia earthquake, and the 1983 Erzurm earthquake.4. Data gathering on earthquakes in Japan : We collected the damage and reconstruction data of destructive earthquakes in Japan. We included the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 1948 Fukui earthquake.5. Development of assessment models : We, first, developed two detailed frameworks for 1) a simple model applicable to post-event, rapid estimation and 2) a comprehensive model applicable to detailed evaluation of regional safety and the development of long-term strategy for the enhancement of regional safety. For the simple model, we completed a prototype and tested its performance accuracy. For the comprehensive model, we developed some element-model including ones for the description of : 1) building collapse, 2) deterioration of health status of trapped victims, and 3) rescue process. Less