Short-term and Medium-term Analysis of World Flow of Funds

所取得的大部分研究成果涉及国际金融联系的计量经济学和时间序列模型的组成部分，对这一模型的估计是研究的最终目的。（1）资产和外汇的短期均衡分析（2）协整检验和单位根检验新方法的发明，（3）货币与财政政策国际协调的各个方面的分析。关于利率相互关系的世界模型的构建，对日本、美国、德国进行简单VAR模型的推算，并通过利率平价条件进行关联。然而，这最后一个阶段尚未最后完成。至于世界经济的IS平衡模型，两个独立的研究正在进行中。一个是对前社会主义经济体资金需求的估计。另一个是对需求的估计， ...更多信息 前社会主义经济体的资金。另一个是对世界其他地区储蓄-投资缺口的估计。目前，由于缺乏各国投资的适当平减指数，综合性研究存在问题。关于国际金融体系，已经完成了对国际债务危机、日元国际化、日本资本输出的结构变化、日本ODA政策等的历史考察等研究。我们在过去两年所进行的研究，在有关范畴作出了重大贡献，这可从研究报告所载的23篇论文中可见一斑。但是，关于综合结果并得出政策结论的工作，今后还有几个步骤需要完成，特别是为了对VAR模型和世界IS平衡模型进行合理可靠的估算，还需要进一步努力。少

Most of the research results obtained are concerned with the building blocks of the econometric and time-series model of international financial linkage, estimation of which comprises the final aim of the study.As for the time series analysis, a number of outputs were produced; (1) analysis of short-run equilibrium of assets and foreign exchange (2) invention of new methods of testing cointegration and unit root, and (3) analysis of various aspects of international coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. As for the construction of the world model of interrelationship among interest rates,simple VAR models are estimated for Japan, the US and Germany, and are expected to be linked with each other by interest rate parity conditions. This last stage is not yet finalized, however. As for the IS balance model for the world economy, two independentstudies are on-going. One is the estimation of the demand for funds by the ex-socialist economies. Another is the estimation of the demand for … More funds by the ex-socialist economies. Another is the estimation of saving-investment gap in the rest of the world. This latter study is currently saddled with the aggregation problem owing to the absence of adequate deflator of investments for each countries.With respect to the international financial system, several studies have been completed, Which includes a historical survey of international debt crisis, internationalization of yen, structural changes in Japan's capital export, and Japan's ODA policy.In sum, our research conducted in the past two years has yielded significant contributions of the related areas, which can be seen by the 23 papers contained in the report of the project. However, as to the task of integrating the results and arriving at policy conclusions, there are still several steps left to be undertaken in the future.In particular, further efforts are expected to be made in order to arrive at a reasonably reliable estimation of the linked VAR model and the world IS balance model. Less