Distribution and Economic Development in Economies in Transition

研究结果1.我系统地研究了社会核算矩阵(SAM)方法：我获得了使用国民核算数据制作SAM的技能，处理统计数据的缺乏和不一致，并通过汇编日本、冲绳县、英国、美国和俄罗斯的SAM来设计足以用于特定分析目的的SAM。对制作平衡SAM的各种矩阵平衡方法进行了试验。得出的结论是距离之和与基准权的平方和最小的优化方法更适合于地空导弹的平衡。我研究了各种乘数分析方法：定性和定量地讨论了基于I-O的乘数分析和基于SAM的乘数分析之间的差异。在调研的基础上，编制了结构路径分析的计算机程序，并将其应用于英国的地空导弹。由于缺乏俄罗斯经济的一些关键统计数据，我无法为俄罗斯制作SAM：然而，我成功地加深了我对俄罗斯经济统计数据的理解。在此之后，我将优先为俄罗斯制定一份SAM：将于1997年发布的1995年俄罗斯I-O将非常有助于我做到这一点。我无法开始我原本计划在本学期进行的CGE方法论研究。这主要是因为SAM的研究比我预期的要耗费更多的时间。特别是，编制用于矩阵平衡和基于SAM的乘法器分析的计算机程序需要许多小时。然而，多亏了这项研究，我可以获得制作CGE模型的坚实基础，特别是在CGE模型的数据库部分。我将推动我的研究，朝着为俄罗斯制造CGE模型的方向发展。

The Results1. I investigated the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) methodology systematically : I acquired skills to make SAMs with using National Accounting data, to deal with lack for and inconsistency of statistical data, and to design a SAM adequate for particular analytical purposes through compiling the SAMs for Japan, Okinawa prefecture, the United Kingdom, USA,and Russia.2. Various matrix balancing methods for making a balanced SAM are tested. The conclusion is that the optimizing method with the minimand of the total sum of distance with the square of base value weights suits for the SAM balancing.3. I investigated various multiplier analysis methods : the differences between the I-O based multiplier analyzes and the SAM-based multiplier analyzes were discussed qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on the investigation, I developed a computer program for the structural path analysis and applied it to a SAM for the United Kingdom.The Future Research Program1. I could not make SAMs for Russia because of lack for some key statistical data of the Russian economy : I succeeded, however, to deepen my understanding of Russian economic statistics. I will give a priority to making a SAM for Russia after this : the 1995 Russian I-O that will be published in 1997 will help me very much to do this.2. I could not start the research of the CGE methodology that I originally planned in this term. It is mainly because the reserch of SAM is much more time consuming than I expected. In particular, making computer programs for matrix balancing and for SAM based multiplier analyzes required many hours. Thank to this research, however, I could acquire a solid foundation for making CGE models, in particular, in the part of the data base for a CGE model. I will advance my research in the direction of making a CGE model for Russia.