Integration of Transportation Planning Process Combining with Demand Forecasting Process

本研究的第一个目的是将传统的四步需求预测模型与经济和土地利用平衡模型相结合。本文建立的土地利用与交通组合模型不是一个简单的模拟模型，而是一个具有严格经济背景的定义良好的数学模型。因此，该模型适合纳入平衡约束数学规划（MPEC）模型。然而，在本研究中，土地利用/交通模型与MPEC模型之间的相互关系建立不足。基于一般均衡方法，建立了土地利用与交通的组合模型。该模型是一个福利最大化问题。本文还讨论了竞争均衡的证明。给出了构建城市区域可持续发展经济模型的基本框架。本文的研究结果总结如下：1。系统综述了土地利用/交通模型和联合交通模型的研究现状。介绍了福利最大化问题的基本理论；为构建本研究开发的土地利用/交通模型提供了一个基本框架。提出了一种具有严格经济基础的土地使用/运输模式，并证明了竞争均衡的存在。将传统的SCGE模型扩展到包含模式分裂的运输网络平衡。用数值实例检验了土地利用/运输模式的适用性。提出了一种具有输运平衡条件的MPEC模型的计算方法，并对应用结果进行了验证。提出了一种构建数据库的方法，将SCGE模型作为城市模型来运行。

The first purpose of this research aims at integrating the model for combining the traditional 4-step demand-forecasting model with the economic and land-use equilibrium model. The combined land-use and transportation model developed here is not a simple simulation model but a well-defined mathematical model with rigorous economic background. Therefore, the model is suitable to incorporate in a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) model. However, in this research establishing of the interrelationships of land-use/transportation model and MPEC model is insufficient.The combined model of land-use and transportation is developed based on general equilibrium approach. The model is built out a welfare maximization problem. The proof of the competitive equilibrium is also addressed. It gives the basic framework for constructing SCGE model for an urban area.The results of this research are summarized as follows :1. The existing research of land-use/transportation models and combined transportation models were reviewed systematically.2. The fundamental theory of the welfare maximization problem was introduced ; it gives a basic framework for constructing the land-use/transportation model developed in this research.3. A land-use/transportation model with rigorous economic foundations was proposed, for which the existence of competitive equilibrium was proved.4. The conventional SCGE model was extended to include the transportation network equilibrium with modal split.5. The applicability of a land-use/transportation model was examined with numerical examples.6. A calculation method of a MPEC model with transportation equilibrium conditions was proposed and an application result was examined.7. A method for constructing the database was proposed to function the SCGE model as an urban model.