Trade between Japan, the U.S., and Asia after the Asian Financial Crisis - Quantitative Analysis by Using Quantum and the Price Indices -

对于1997年亚洲金融危机及其后的复苏，很多分析主要是从金融方面进行的。然而，通过贸易活动进行分析是不够的。此外，在许多情况下，贸易数据是以美元或国家货币为基础的价值来衡量的，而不是以数量来衡量的，部分原因是不存在以数量来衡量的详细贸易数据。在亚洲金融危机的情况下，亚洲货币的汇率剧烈波动，需要使用出口或进口数量指数进行分析。在本研究中，我们利用贸易数量和价格指数来分析亚洲金融危机对日本、美国和亚洲之间贸易的影响。本研究的主要内容如下：(1)出口方面，金融危机后，日本对韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和泰国的出口数量大幅减少。然而，它们在1998年第一季度至第二季度触底，到2000年迅速恢复到金融危机前的水平。(2)在进口方面，尽管日本从亚洲国家的进口额下降，但即使在金融危机之后，进口额仍在稳步增长。考虑到1998年以后日本经济的低增长率甚至负增长，亚洲货币的贬值对扩大这些国家对日本的出口量起到了重要作用。国际货币基金组织（IMF）经常受到指责，称其对亚洲国家的政策建议进一步恶化了这些国家的商业环境，加速了资本从这些国家外逃。然而，如果我们考虑到他们几乎在如此短的时间内从严重的损害中恢复过来，暂时的萧条可能会在初始阶段抑制通货膨胀，并导致随后的稳定复苏。从这个意义上说，IMF的政策应该重新评估。

As for the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subsequent recovery, many analyzes are made mainly from financial aspects. However, the analysis through trade activity is not necessarily enough. Furthermore, in many cases, trade data is measured in value terms such as dollar or the national currency basis and not quantitative terms, partly because the detailed trade data in quantitative terms did not exist. In the case of the Asian financial crisis in which the exchange rate of the Asian currencies fluctuated sharply, it is required to analyze by using export or import quantity index. In this research, we analyze what influence the Asian financial crisis had on trade between Japan, the U. S. , and Asia by using quantity and price indices of trade. The major points of the research are as follows.(1) In the exports side, the export quantity from Japan to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand reduced dramatically after the financial crisis. However, they bottomed out in 1Q-2Q of 1998, and by 2000 recovered quickly to the level of those before the financial crisis.(2) In respect of imports, although Japanese import value from Asian countries decreased, import quantity increased steadily even after the financial crisis. Considering the Japan's low or negative economic growth rate after 1998, the depreciation of the Asian currencies is supposed to play an important role in expanding the export volume from these countries to Japan.(3) The IMF is often blamed that their policy advice to the Asian countries worsened further their business climate and accelerated the capital flight from them. However, if we take into account that they almost recovered from a serious damage in such a short period, temporary depression could curb the inflation at the initial stage and lead to a following steady recovery. In that sense, the IMF's policy should be reevaluated.