New Analytical Approach on Travel Behavior and Transportation Network in the Next Generation of Intelligent Transport Systems

在这项研究中，我们提出了一个规范的数学模型，预测多路径选择行为的均衡流模式与ATIS（先进交通信息系统）用户的内生需求。该模型基本上是基于Yang（1998）提出的多用户网络均衡模型，但我们可以通过对ATIS用户需求建模的另一种适当的定义，将另一个等价的优化规划问题表达出来。通过使用该模型，我们可以测量与需求建模框架相一致的社会效益。此外，我们得到了一个非常有趣的悖论，ATIS信息并不总是产生社会效率的交通。此外，我们还发现了一些有用的结果，即在ATIS信息成本向驾驶员收取的情况下，系统的总成本有时低于ATIS信息成本免费的情况。 ...更多信息 利用WTP和[MSUE/ATIS]模型两种方法对先进的出行者信息系统的实际效果进行了研究。首先，本研究针对VICS-unit的导入效果进行了市民认知调查。通过支付意愿调查对ATIS的价值进行了评估，并对ATIS的效益进行了估算。并利用WTP模型对[MSUE/ATIS]模型的未知参数进行了估计。最后，将[MSUE/ATIS]模型应用于熊本市区和清园市区，以估算其效益。研究发现，ATIS在交通拥挤程度高、出行成本大的地区的引入是有效的。最后，本文提出了一种利用实测交通量反估计综合网络均衡模型组成模型的未知参数的方法。为了将该方法应用于[MUSE/VICS-Demand]模型，建立了一个双层优化问题。证明了所提出的方法可以通过使用模型网络的数值模拟来使用。此外，还证明了非线性灵敏度分析可以有效地计算双层优化问题。关于未知参数的估计，得到了如下结果：（1）对于一组观测链路，存在一种有效的设置方法;（2）通过减小观测误差，可以提高估计精度。少

In this study, we propose a normative mathematical model with which we forecast multiple route choice behavior equilibrium flow pattern with endogenous demand of ATIS (Advanced Transportation Information System) users. This model is basically based on the multiple user network equilibrium model provided by Yang (1998), but we can formulate the other equivalent optimization-programming problem using an alternative and appropriate definition on ATIS users demand modeling. By using this model, we can measure the social benefit that is consistent with the demand-modeling framework. Furthermore, we obtain a very interesting paradox that the ATIS information might not always produce social efficiency to the transportation. Furthermore, we find the useful results that total cost of the system is sometimes lower in the case when the ATIS information cost is charged to drivers than in the case when the ATIS information cost is free of charge.On the other hand, this study proposed the introducto … More ry effect of advanced traveler information systems using two methods, WTP and [MSUE/ATIS] model. First, we performed the citizen perception survey to the introductory effect of VICS-unit. We evaluated the value of ATIS by WTP survey, and estimated the benefit. Furthermore, the unknown parameter of [MSUE/ATIS] model was estimated using WTP model. Finally, [MSUE/ATIS] model was applied to Kumamoto Urban Area and Seien Urban Area in order to estimate the benefit. We found that the introductory of ATIS in the area, where traffic congestion is heavy and travel cost is large, is effective.Finally, this paper proposes a method of inverse-estimating the unknown parameters of the composition model, which composed of integrated network equilibrium model using observed traffic. A bi-level optimization problem is built in order to apply the method to the [MUSE/VICS-Demand] model. It is proved that the proposed method can be used by means of numerical simulations using a model network. Moreover, it is also proved that a bi-level optimization problem can be efficiently calculated by nonlinear sensitivity analysis. The following results about the estimation of the unknown parameters are found: (1) there is an effective setting method for a set of observed links; (2) it is possible to improve precision of estimate by making the observation error small. Less