Possibilities and Scopes of International Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

本研究项目研究东亚地区的国际货币合作，重点关注为重建强健的国际金融体系而采用汇率制度的协调失败。为了解决协调失灵的问题，有必要在东亚国家间采用共同的货币篮子制度。本研究项目使用了“广义购买力平价模型”，该模型有助于我们对明确引入锚定货币的最优货币区进行实证分析。采用误差修正模型，以美元、日元和欧元为货币篮子，考察东亚各国货币汇率的平稳性。我在一些国际会议（2003年3月27-28日吉隆坡澳大利亚国立大学会议；2003年9月19-20日东京亚太经济论坛会议；2003年11月3日首尔KIEP研讨会；2003年12月9日春川亚洲危机会议）上发表了分析结果，以完善分析方法。基于广义购买力平价模型的分析结果，我提出了政策建议：建议东亚各国货币当局建立一个具有最优权重的共同货币篮子，以使许多东亚国家参与区域货币合作。

This research project investigated international monetary cooperation in East Asia by focusing on coordination failure in adopting exchange rate systems for rebuilding a robust international financial system. It is necessary to adopt a common currency basket system in East Asian countries for solving the coordination failure. This research project used a "generalized purchasing power parity model" that help us to conduct empirical analysis about an optimum currency area with explicitly introducing anchor currency. The error correction model was used to investigate stationarities of exchange rates of East Asian currencies in terms of currency baskets of the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro.I made presentation of the analytical results in some international conferences (ANU Conference @Kuala Lumpur, 27-28 March, 2003 ; APEF Conference @Tokyo, 19-20 September, 2003 ; KIEP seminar @Seoul, 3 November, 2003 ; Asian Crisis V Conference @Chuncheon, 9 December, 2003) to refine the analytical methodology. I made a policy proposal from the analytical results based on the generalized purchasing power parity model : It is proposed that the monetary authorities in East Asian countries should create a common currency basket with an optimal basket weights in order to participate in a regional monetary cooperation for many of East Asian countries.