Welfare foundations of cost benefit analysis under uncertain, dynamic and multiregional economy

本研究旨在探讨在不确定、动态和/或多区域经济下，利益的定义、衡量方法、与效用水平的一致性以及补偿检验之间的关系。主要研究结果总结如下：1.研究成果。收益定义及其可测性及其与不确定条件下补偿检验的一致性：提出将Allais剩余的概念应用于不确定条件下收益的定义，并证明了(1)该定义与期望效用和补偿检验是一致的；(2)通过观察防灾投资的个体行为是可以测量的。多区域(动态)经济的效益测算公式：(1)新的交通项目导致拥堵状况进一步恶化的原因是集聚经济的存在，衡量交通项目总效益不仅需要测算交通用户的…更多(分散)利益，但也有集聚利益。(2)在没有小的开放假设的情况下，可以通过地价的变化来衡量地方公共产品的总收益。(3)在SCGE.3框架下，将运输活动明确表示为一个经济部门，完善了运输效益计量公式。动态经济条件下全球变暖缓解政策的宏观经济评价：(1)将日本视为一个区域，定义效益=GDP+WTP，成本=投资，净效益=消费；(3)在优化问题框架内发展算法，模拟正常情况；(4)对纯时间偏好率和边际效用对消费的弹性进行敏感性分析。动态不确定经济条件下的评价模型：(1)建立了公共项目的预评价模型和中期评价模型，其中明确包含了公共项目的停止和暂停期权；(2)给出了较少地度量此类期权的经济价值的方法

This study aims to explore the relationships between the definition of benefit, its measurement methods, its consistency with utility level and compensation test under uncertain, dynamic and /or multiregional economy. The main results are summarized as follows.1. Benefit definition, its measurability and its consistency with compensation test under uncertainty: It proposes to apply the concept of Allais Surplus to the definition of benefit under uncertainty, and shows that (1) the proposed definition is consistent with both the expected utility and compensation test; (2) it is measurable by observing the individual behaviors of disaster prevention investments.2. Benefit measurement formula for multiregional (dynamic) economy:(1) It shows that the reason that new transportation project induces further congestion deterioration is due to the existence of agglomeration economy, and that for measuring total transportation project benefits it needs to measure not only the transportation user … More (dis) benefits but also agglomeration benefits. (2) It shows that without small and open assumption the total benefit of local public goods can be measured by the change in land prices. (3) It improves the transportation benefit measurement formula by explicitly expressing the transportation activities as a economic sector within the framework of SCGE.3. Macro economic evaluation of global warming mitigation policies under dynamic economy: (1) it develops the modified RICE model where Japan is treated as one region, and (2) defines benefits=GDP+WTP, cost=investment, net benefit=consumption, then (3) develops the algorism within the optimization problem framework for simulating the business as usual situation, and (4) carries out the sensitivity analysis on the pure time preference rate and elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption.4. Evaluation model under dynamic and uncertain economy: (1) It develops the pre and intermediate evaluation models with explicit inclusion of stop and pause options for a public project, and (2) shows methods to measure the economic value for such options Less