An Empirical Study on the Intellectual Property Strategy and Real Options Analysis of the Biotech Start-ups

本项目主要研究实物期权分析(ROA)的潜力和局限性，因为ROA经常被美国和英国的创业型生物技术初创企业或大型制药公司用作决策方法，使在临床重大疾病基础研究的基础上推动药物开发成为可能。这项研究的另一个目的是通过定量的方法恢复日本的管理风格，以便赶上美国或英国等先进国家的日本生物技术初创公司的创建活动。根据这一项目，首先是一些在日本北海道、关东、关西、九州和中部地区经营或创办的有前途的生物技术初创公司，主要是因为建立了从生命科学基础研究到公共汽车或市场的技术转移过程。本研究表明，真正的可选设计可以从否定的…转变为更多的净现值在一定范围内转为正的ENPV(扩展的净现值)，而药物发现生物技术初创企业往往面临死亡谷，因为长期的负现金流期。此外，通过蒙特卡洛模拟，随机ROA不仅可以给出预期收益率从负值提高到正值的定量模型，而且还可以同时降低风险，基于模拟的多个情景而不是二项格子模型中的一个情景的点估计。第三，为了使生物技术初创企业在战略合作伙伴关系中做出理性决策，作为一种克服死亡谷的方法，尝试了一种探索性的期权博弈建模方法，将实物期权与博弈论相结合。虽然定量竞争模式和定价竞争模式的条件不同，但即使是非合作博弈也可能导致伙伴关系或开放式创新的最优策略。本研究的一些意义在于基于知识产权的蓝色可选设计，以及基于与大型制药公司战略合作的期权博弈的最优战略选择的建模，对于药物发现生物技术初创企业克服死亡谷，鉴于生物技术产业在未来老龄化背景下的重要性，以及作为继汽车产业之后的下一代产业，生命科学基础研究成果商业化的长期投资决策量化管理模型的构建与检验是本研究的重点。较少

In this project, the potential and limit of Real Options Analysis(ROA)are mainly studied, because ROA is often used by the US and UK pioneering biotech start-ups or large pharmaceutical companies as a decision malting method to make possible irmovative the drug development based on basic research for clinical serious diseases. Another objective of this study on ROA is came from one intention to make recovery of Japanese Management Style by a quantitative approach in order to catch-up on founding activities of Japanese biotech start-up with advanced countries as the US or UK.According to this project, fast of all, them are some promising biotech start-ups that am operating or founding in such Japanese biotech dusters as the Hokkaido, Kanto, Kansai, Kyusyu, and Chubu areas, mainly because of establishing the technological transfer process from the basic research of life science to the bus ness or market Secondly, this study showed that the real optional design could change from a negativ … More e NPW (Net Present Value) into a positive ENPV (Expanded NPV) within a certain extent, while drug discovery biotech start-ups tend to face the death-valley, as long term of negative cash flow period. Additionally by using Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic ROA could show a quantitative model on not only the improvement of the expected return value from a negative to a positive value but also simultaneously the reduction of risk, based on multiple scenarios from simulation instead of a point estimation of one scenario from a binomial lattice model Thirdly, for a rational decision making at strategic partnerships as a method to overcome the death-valley by biotech start-ups, a modeling in an exploratory approach of option-game was tried for the integration between real options and game theory. While the conditions between the quantitative and the pricing competition modes are different, the study made dear a possibility that even non-cooperative game could guide to the optimal strategy for partnerships or open innovation.Some of significances of this study are a teal optional design based on intellectual property and a modeling on the optimal strategy selection from the option-game at strategic partnerships with large pharmaceutical companies, for drug discovery biotech start-ups to overcome the death-valley, because start-ups are more suitable than large companies for the innovative and risky drug development projects.The importance of the study is the building and test of the quantitative management model on long term investment decision for commercialization of basic research results in life science, since biotech industry is becoming important in the context of the future aging and as a next generation of industry after the automotive industry. Less