A Study of Knowledge Model Development using Fuzzy Model

本研究的目的是提出一个知识模型的发展，以预测需求和管理一个部分。典型的案例是超市的生鲜区，它处于复杂的动态变化的环境中。该部分是重点。该知识模型结合集成模型和上下文模型来处理复杂情境中的上下文信息。一个系统的方法论“I系统”的知识集成和创造应用开发的知识模型，以管理在新鲜食品部门的需求预测。具体做法是将问题分解为管理者知识、消费者行为和需求预测三个域并加以明确。在管理者知识领域，通过两次访谈调查，收集了管理者对部门管理和决策事项等方面的知识。所获得的知识，说明使用KJ方法，文本挖掘技术和贝叶斯定理等领域的客户行为，通过互联网进行问卷调查，以收集他们的想法在新鲜食品部分。对所得数据进行分析，找出影响消费者选择肉类食品的重要因素。然后，对需求方和供给方的思想进行了比较分析。将两个领域的结果综合起来，建立了不同于传统统计模型的需求预测模型。同时，还开发了该系统。该系统支持管理者考虑机会损失和处置损失的决策。

The purpose of this study is to propose a knowledge model development in order to predict demand and to manage a section. The typical case of the situation is the fresh food section in a supermarket which is under complex and dynamically changing circumstance. The section is focused. The knowledge model is developed by combining ensemble model to treat the fluctuation on evaluation and context model to treat the context of complex situation. A systems methodology "I-System" for knowledge integration and creation is applied to develop the knowledge model in order to manage the demand prediction in the fresh food section. The concrete approach is to divide the problem into three domains consisting of the manager's knowledge, the consumer behavior and the demand prediction and to clarify them. In the domain of the manager's knowledge, two interview surveys are carried out in order to collect the manager's knowledge on the section management and decision making items and so forth. The obtained knowledge are illustrated using KJ method, text mining techniques and Bayesian Theorem etc. In the domain of the customer behavior, a questionnaire survey is carried out via Internet in order to collect their thinking on the fresh food section. The obtained data is analyzed to find the important factors when the customers select flesh foods. Then, comparison analysis between demand side and supply side thinking is done. The results of two domains are integrated to build the demand prediction model which is different from the conventional statistical model. At the same time, the system is also developed. The system supports the manager's decision making to consider the chance loss and disposal loss.