An Analysis on Various Types of Economic Reforms and Evolutionary Game Theory-Comparative Analysis of China with Central and Eastern Europe and Russia-

本项目的研究主要集中在中国的体制转型，并与中东欧和俄罗斯的情况进行比较。本文的研究成果主要包括以下五个方面，特别是考虑到中欧、东欧和俄罗斯的中国特色；(1)无论是从中国整体来看，还是从长三角的上海、浙江、江苏等特定区域来看，我们都很容易发现“路径依赖”现象。(2)“中国人”人际网络是中国整体和特定区域的特征。(3)“路径依赖”的存在意味着“内向性”的存在，这也显示了与国外和国外地区密切关系的障碍。在本研究中，我们试图解释外商直接投资案例所显示的障碍。(4)从新制度主义的观点出发，指出摆脱“路径依赖”是实现从“内向”向“外向”转变的必要条件。(5)通过考察中国经济模式和中国政治模式，我们可以认识到“市场失灵”和“政府失灵”之间的复杂关系，也可以认识到“威权发展体制”中的中国变革逻辑。这项研究也集中在中国人的行为上。通过演化博弈方法的研究，中国期货市场参与者的行为似乎符合“行为金融”理论的假设。我们还可以看到，上海和郑州的期货市场相当高效。有了这样的研究结果，我们可以坚持认为，中国市场导向体制的趋势已经成功地进行了。

The research on this project was implemented with mainly focusing on the systemic transition in China by comparing to the situations in Central and Eastern Europe and Russia.Various results gained by this research, particularly on the Chinese characteristic features taking into consideration Central and Eastern Europe and Russia, are the following five; (1) regarding both China as a whole and particular region including Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu in the Yangtze River Delta, we could easily recognize the “path dependence" phenomena. (2)The characteristic features on both China as a whole and the particular region are the “Chinese people" human network. (3) The existence of “path dependence" means the existence of “introversion", which also shows the obstacle against close relationships with foreign countries and foreign regions. In this research, we have tried to explain the obstacles shown by foreign direct investment cases. (4) From viewpoints of the neo-institutionalism, it is pointed out that to break away from “path dependence" is necessary to transform from “introversion" to “extroversion". (5) By investigating the Chinese economic model and Chinese political model, we could recognize complicated relationships between “market failure" and “government failure" and also recognize the Chinese logic of change in the “authoritarian development system".This research has been also concentrated on Chinese peoples' behaviors. By studying with the evolutionary game approach, behaviors of Chinese participants in futures markets seem to be consistent with the hypothesis of “behavioral finance" theory. Also we could show that the futures markets in Shanghai and Zhengzhou have been rather efficient.With such mentioned research results, we could insist that the tendency towards market oriented system in China has been successfully in progress.