Longitudinal Analysis of Influence upon Traffic Demand Caused by Declining Birthrate and Increasing Ratio of Elderly People

研究了人口估计问题以及设施分布与人口分布的关系。所有指标都是根据日本11年的全国人口普查和劳动力调查构建的。使用1/2大小的网格系统数据，得到以下结果：(1)在总体估计中，我们已经表明，如果我们将单位长度积分为2 km来处理网格系统数据，则可以削弱隐藏网格的影响。(2)建立了时间序列数据的误差处理技术。(3)通过对影响交通需求的购物活动与人口的关系分析，发现在老年人口增加和出生率下降的情况下，吸引零售商到人口稀少的地区是非常困难的。此外，从居民与零售商之间的距离关系出发，明确了零售商在未来维持的概率。

We studied about population estimation and the relation between facilities distribution and population distribution. All metrics are constructed using the Japanese national census and labour force survey for 11 years. Using 1/2-size grid system data, following results were achieved.(1) In the population estimation, we have shown that the influence of the concealed grid can be weakened, if we treat the grid system data by integrating the unit length into 2 km.(2) The error treatment technique for time series data were established.(3) From the analysis of the relationship between shopping activities and population which may influence traffic demand, we found that attracting retailers to underpopulated areas is very difficult, under both the conditions of increasing the elderly population and of decreasing birthrate. Moreover, the probability that retailers will be maintained in the future was clarified from the relation of the distance between residents and retailers.