Analysis of coastal zone development through space/time modelling

该研究方案的目标是开发模型，反映波罗的海南部下沉海岸数千年时间尺度上用定性和定量变量描述的地缘/生态/社会经济系统的驱动力和反应之间的关系。因果关系将由不同类型的模型描述，从多元统计方法到微分方程式，取决于过程描述的量化。这些模型将用于重建该系统及其组成部分的历史，并用于通过正演模拟得出相对海平面变化的预测情景。可在地质/生物样品上测量的代理变量和代表古过程的人工制品通过校准模型进行正演模拟，在历史重建中发挥关键作用。为了描述这一过程，需要根据物理和生物测年方法，开发出公元前8.000历年(开始Litorina海侵)到公元2800年(气候预测结束)之间的高分辨率时间尺度。空间和时间指示将由空间/时间地理信息系统提供，该系统将在该项目内部分开发。结果将以地理、生态和社会经济参数随时间变化的区域化形式呈现。

The research program targets the development of models that mirror the relation between driving forces and reactions of the geo/eco/socio-economic system described by qualitative and quantitative variables at the sinking coasts of the southern Baltic Sea on time scales of millennia. The cause and effect relation will be described by different types of models, from multivariate statistical approaches to differential equations, depending on the quantification of the processes' description. These models are to be used for reconstructions of the history of the system and its components as well as for the derivation of prognostic scenarios relative sea level change by forward modelling. Proxy-variables which can be measured at geo/biological samples and artifacts that represent the palaeo processes play a key role in the historical reconstruction by calibrating the models for forward modelling. The development of a high resolution time scale ranging between 8.000 calendar years BC (beginning Litorina transgression) and 2800 AD (end of climate prognosis) based on physical and biological methods of dating is needed for the process description. The spatial and temporal indication will be given by a space/time geoinformation system, to be developed in part within the project. Results will be presented as regionalisations of geo-, eco- and socio-economic parameters as functions of time.