A study on the estimation of person trip variations in a hypothetical earthquake : A path-dependence approach

在分析现有人员出行概念的基础上，利用2001 - 2009年的原始调查数据，提出了地震后人员出行的估算方法。在以往的研究中，研究人员通过静态方法估计了地震发生后返乡旅行（RHTs）的旅行需求。与这种方法相反，在对这些数据的新解释中，RHT旅行需求将使用新的概念进行评估，包括动态旅行，突发地震发生的模拟（以5分钟为间隔），增强的细节，包括起点和目的地之间的五个位置，以及16种响应旅行的路径依赖性。通过使用地理信息系统，可以更真实和准确地估计假设地震时的人员出行变化。

Based on the analysis of existing concepts concerning person trips and by using original survey data collected between 2001 and 2009, this study proposes new ways to estimate various person trips after earthquakes. In previous studies, researchers, by a static method, have estimated travel demands on return-home trips (RHTs) after the occurrence of an earthquake. In contrast to such a method, in the new interpretation of this data, RHT travel demand will be assessed using novel concepts, including dynamic trips, simulations of sudden earthquake occurrences (at 5-minute intervals), enhanced details featuring five locations between origins and destinations, and the path dependencies of 16 types of response trips. By using GIS, variations of person trips on a hypothetical earthquake can be more realistically and accurately estimated.