A Synthetic Study of Probability and Certainty at the Time of Pascal

本文旨在通过对帕斯卡的科学、政治、宗教著作等各种文本的分析，厘清帕斯卡思想中的确定性和可能性问题，并在此基础上指出帕斯卡思想中的一系列重要概念，这些概念构成了帕斯卡的基本主题之一：区分、违背和颠倒“秩序”。几何、语言或政治制度的稳定秩序，如果我们对它们的起源提出质疑，就会失去确定性并开始动摇，而身体、习俗或人的秩序所特有的概率，随着秩序的颠倒而变成确定性。这是帕斯卡思想的原始特征之一。

This study aims to clear up the problem of certainty and probability in Pascal's thought by analysis of his various texts such as scientific, political and religious works, and to point out at the basis of this problem a series of important conceptions which form one of his fundamental themes : distinction, violation, and reversal of "orders". While the stable orders of geometry, language or political regime, lose their certainty and start shaking if we bring their origin into question, the probability peculiar to the orders of body, custom, or people, turns into certainty by the reversal of the orders. This is one of the original features of Pascal's thought.