Balance of payments imbalances and the global economy

第一份文件根据国际收支阶段对175个国家在短短30年内进行了分类，国际收支阶段经常用于提出一个假设，即该阶段取决于一个国家的发展进程。使用非参数估计，这项调查表明，一个国家的国际收支阶段与其经济发展有一个非单调的关系，一个国家在不成熟的债权人-贷款人阶段享有较高的人均国内生产总值比任何其他发展阶段。第二篇论文对日本的贸易进行了调查，考察净出口与贸易条件之间是否存在J/S曲线现象。基于VAR稳定性检验的结果，将总贸易数据内生地分为三个子周期数据集，最后两个子周期数据集中存在J/S曲线。J/S曲线可能源于中国和石油出口国在日本贸易中所占份额的增加。

The first paper classifies 175 countries over a period of just 30 years according to the balance of payments stages that are frequently used in proposing a hypothesis that the stage depends on the progression in a nation's development. Using a nonparametric estimation, this investigation demonstrates that a nation's stage in the balance of payments has a non-monotonic relationship with its economic development, and that a country at the stage of immature creditor-lender enjoys a higher GDP per capita than at any other stage in its development. The second paper investigates Japanese trade to see whether the J/S-curve phenomenon between net exports and the terms of trade is observed in the data. Based on the results of a VAR stability test, the aggregate trade data are endogenously split into three sub-period data sets, with the J/S-curve present in the last two. The J/S-curve may stem from the increasing share of China and the oil-exporting countries in Japanese trade.