How “known unknowns” become known: How do people encode unpredictability?

正如唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德所指出的，有一些“已知的未知数”。也就是说，人们似乎有能力学习一些无法可靠预测的事情。这种学习是从琐事(是否穿夹克)到定义生活(嫁给谁)的决定的基础。这种学习的一种异常形式也可能是心理健康障碍的根源。然而，这种学习的机制在很大程度上被认知科学家忽视了，因此知之甚少。该项目基于重要的先导数据，旨在研究人们何时以及如何了解不可预测性，以及这种学习的认知、记忆、神经和情感后果是什么。

As Donald Rumsfeld noted, there are 'known unknowns’. That is to say, people are seemingly capable of learning that some things cannot be reliably predicted. This learning underpins decisions from the trivial (whether to pack a jacket) to the life-defining (whom to marry). An aberrant form of this learning may also underlie mental health disorders. Yet the mechanisms of such learning have been largely overlooked by cognitive scientists and thus are poorly understood. The project, which is based on significant pilot data, aims to examine when and how people learn about unpredictability, and what the cognitive, memorial, neural and affective consequences of this learning are.