Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Urban Electricity Distribution Network Loads

城市地区日益增长的电力需求和现场发电意味着城市电网需要大力加强。英国配电网络运营商（DNO）预计将在2050年之前花费430亿英镑用于加强英国家庭和企业的电力网络，其中大部分预计将部署在受限制的城市地区。虽然DNO目前可以使用负荷预测工具来规划特定区域和单个资产的投资过程，但目前还没有办法量化气候变化对需求的影响（例如夏季制冷量增加，冬季供暖量减少）和分布式发电（例如平均太阳能日照和风力水平的变化）将如何影响所需的城市网络升级程度。为了解决这个问题，我们将研究和开发一个完整的商业工具，将气象局气候预测数据与DNO负荷数据相结合，以确定潜在的气候变化负荷对城市电网的影响的大小和网络位置，并在各种气候变化情景下解决单个网络资产（首先是所有伦敦一级变电站）。

Growing electricity demand and on-site generation in urban areas means that urban electricity networks require significant reinforcement. Much of the £43 billion that distribution network operators (DNOs) in the UK are forecast to spend out to 2050 on reinforcing the electricity networks feeding UK homes and businesses is expected to be deployed in constrained urban areas. While DNOs currently have access to load forecasting tools to plan this investment process by specific region and individual asset, there is currently no way of quantifying how climate change impacts on demand (e.g. more summer cooling and less winter heating) and distributed generation (e.g. changing average solar insolation and wind levels) will influence the extent of urban network upgrades required. To solve this problem, we will research and develop a full commercial tool integrating Met Office climate forecast data with DNO load data to identify the size and network location of potential climate change load impacts on urban electricity networks, resolved to individual network assets (all London primary substations in the first instance) under various climate change scenarios.