Assessing Water Supply Security in a Nonstationary Environment

目前，全球约有25%的人口无法充分获得安全可靠的饮用水。到2050年，由于人口增加和河流流量减少，这一数字预计将上升到50%。虽然可见的水危机（例如2018年开普敦的水危机）可能会导致新供水基础设施的资金投入，但由于对未来可用水量的预测相互矛盾，计划中的基础设施扩建往往会停滞不前。为了解决这个问题，提出了一种新的替代评估水安全。我们的方法使用河流流量和水需求的历史信息来评估变化，调整这些信息以形成比现有替代方案更可靠的预测。

About 25% of the global population currently has inadequate access to safe and secure water. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2050 due to increased populations and reduced river flows. While a visible water crisis (such as the one in Cape Town in 2018) can culminate in the funding of new water supply infrastructure, a planned push for infrastructure augmentation often stalls due to contradictory projections of how much water will be available in the future. To address this, a novel alternative for assessing water security is proposed. Our approach assesses change using historical information on river flow and water demand, adapting these to form projections that exhibit greater reliability than currently existing alternatives.