SIMULATION SOFTWARE FOR PUBLIC RETIREMENT SYSTEMS

描述：本申请的广泛目标是设计， 实施、生产和销售一种交互式、面向图形 用于模拟、研究和分析的计算机软件包 公共退休制度的动态。 最近死亡率下降， 生育率对迅速老龄化的社会构成财政挑战。 创新 该方案的特点包括：（1）人口预测模块， 最先进的死亡率下降模型;（2）模拟 主要经济变量的影响，如真实的利率和 生产率增长率;（3）交互式检查 税收和福利政策对人口和社会背景的影响 经济变革。 拟议中的计划将重点放在美国、 尽管未来的版本将包括加拿大、墨西哥和其他国家。 第一期工程的具体目标是：（1）建立项目 规范（输入/输出/数据流/计算流/GUI （2）收集、测试和记录数据库， 算法结构的程序;（3）设计软件作为一个 Windows95/NT，GUI为基础的应用程序;（4）制作初步的网上 帮助（用户）指南和技术手册;（5）测试和验证 程序组件。 该项目既有商业市场（研究人员 和研究退休制度的分析师）和教育市场。 拟定商业应用： 拟议的项目是提供最近的数据和分析， 公共退休建模的用户友好软件技术 系统.有两个目标市场：研究人员和分析师谁研究 退休和养老金制度;以及相应的教育市场 精算学学科的学生和教员， 商业、人口学、经济学、金融、老年学、公共政策和 社会学作为该项目的一部分开发的软件将允许 研究人员和学生回答一个大大扩大了实质性的 和分析性问题。

DESCRIPTION: The broad objectives of this application are to design, implement, produce and market an interactive, graphically-oriented computer software package for the simulation, study and analysis of the dynamics of public retirement systems. Recent declines in mortality and fertility pose fiscal challenges for rapidly aging societies. Innovative features of the program include: (1) a demographic projection module with a state-of-the-art model of mortality decline; (2) the ability to simulate the effect of key economic variables such as real interest rate and the rate of productivity growth; (3) the ability to interactively examine the impact of tax and benefit policy against the background of demographic and economic change. The proposed program will focus on the United States, although future versions will include Canada, Mexico, and other countries. Specific goals of this Phase I project are to: (1) establish program specifications (input/output/data flow/computational flows/GUI characteristics); (2) assemble, test and document the database and algorithmic structure for the program; (3) design the software as a Windows 95/NT, GUI-based, application; (4) produce a preliminary online help (user's) guide, and technical manual; and (5) test and validate program components. The project has both commercial markets (researchers and analysts who study retirement systems) and educational markets. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATION: The proposed project is to make available recent data and analytical techniques in user-friendly software for the modeling of public retirement systems. There are two target markets: researchers and analysts who study retirement and pension systems; and the corresponding educational market of students and instructors in the disciplines of actuarial science, business, demography, economics, finance, gerontology, public policy and sociology. The software developed as part of the project will allow researchers and students to answer a greatly expanded set of substantive and analytical questions.