OLDEST-OLD MORTALITY--DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS AND ANALYSES

我们能活多久？生物医学领域的主要不确定性 预测中期预期寿命，比方说，20岁 到80年后从一场悬而未决的争论中产生 关于： --基因因素是否会将人类预期寿命限制在 85年左右，或者 --能否在降低死亡率方面取得进展 年龄，包括高龄，这样预期寿命可以 增加到一个世纪或更长时间。 该方案项目的中心目标是解决这一争议 通过汇编和分析可靠的数据(项目1-4)， 完善和开发适用于此的统计方法 实质性研究(统计发展核心)，以及 系统地组织这场争论，整合 研究结果(范型评判核心)。A管理人员 CORE协调各种研究活动。 要汇编、仔细核实、发布和发布的数据集 存档的是瑞典和美国(项目1)，丹麦双胞胎 (项目2)，100万只地中海果蝇在 严格控制的条件(项目3)和50,000 10个近交系中的果蝇(项目4)。这些数据集具有 被精心挑选来提供关于死亡率的信息 随着年龄和时间的推移以及所需的内部和跨基因型别 以解决预期寿命的争议。 将使用以下方法分析四个项目中的数据集 生命表方法及参数生存模型估计 采用极大似然法。分析的重点将是 这种力量中有一种由基因决定的衰老成分 不能通过环境降低的高龄死亡率 改变或医学进步。它是假想的存在 被认为会限制人类预期寿命的衰老死亡率。 关于高龄老人死亡率的一些相关研究也建议在 四个项目，包括对男女差异的研究 以及衰弱对死亡率选择的影响。

How long will we live? The major biomedical uncertainty in forecasting life expectancy in the middle term from, say, twenty to eighty years from now arises from an unsettled controversy concerning: -- whether genetic factors limit human life expectancy to perhaps 85 years or so, or -- whether progress can be made in reducing mortality rates at all ages including advanced ages, such that life expectancy can increase to a century or more. The central aim of this program project is address this controversy by compiling and analyzing reliable data (Projects 1 - 4), by refining and developing appropriate statistical methods for this substantive research (Statistical Development Core), and by systematically structuring the controversy and integrating the research results (Paradigm Adjudication Core). An Administrative Core coordinates the various research activities. The data sets to be assembled, meticulously verified, published and archived pertain to Sweden and the U.S. (Project 1), Danish twins (Project 2), one million Mediterranean fruit flies raised under stringently controlled conditions (Project 3), and 50,000 Drosophila in ten inbred lines (Project 4). These data sets have been carefully chosen to supply the information on mortality rates over age and time and within and across genotypes that is needed to address the life-expectancy controversy. The data sets will be analyzed in the four projects by using lifetable methods and by using parametric survival models estimated by maximum likelihood methods. The analysis will focus on whether there is a genetically-determined senescent component of the force of mortality at older ages that can not be reduced by environmental changes or medical advances. It is the hypothesized existence of senescent mortality that is thought to limit human life expectancy. Some related research on oldest-old mortality is also proposed in the four projects, including research on male/female differentials and on the impact of debilitation vs. mortality selection.