LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS OF OLDER WORKERS

拟议研究的目的是加深对 社会经济政策、个人特征 健康状况和老年工人的劳动力市场行为。 我们 具体目标是评估对老年人劳动力供应的影响 社会保障福利公式修改的工人，例如 可以领取全额福利的年龄或 提前退休或延迟退休的精算调整。 这一目标将得到实现 通过构建、评估和实施一个 劳动力市场行为，包括个人异质性， 旨在评估社会保障和其他社会经济影响 政策 该模型采用了最新的方法进步，其特点是 五个关键特征。(1)该模型是完全结构化的， 生命周期优化行为。(2)该模型允许逐期 劳动力市场国家之间的劳动力供应和流动的决定。（三） 社会保障政策的所有方面都是完全详细的模型， 允许检查这些政策中非常具体的变化。 （四） 关于政策变化影响的精确统计推断 收入和劳动力市场行为的老年工人提供。 (5)的 模型包括观察到的和未观察到的异质性;缺乏 未观察到的异质性是一个可检验的假设。 总之，这些特征提供了将 在经验基础上更坚定地考虑政策变化， 以决策者认为最有用的形式提供评估。 后 完成后，该项目还将提供一个方法和经验， 为随后调查其他影响 美国老年人的福利。

The objective of the proposed research is an increased understanding of the relationship between socioeconomic policy, individual characteristics such as health status, and the labor market behavior of older workers. Our specific aim is the assessment of the impact on the labor supply of older workers of modifications in the Social Security benefit formula, such as changes in the age at which full benefits can be received or in the actuarial adjustment for early or delayed retirement. This aim will be met through the construction, estimation, and implementation of a model of labor market behavior that incorporates individual heterogeneity and that is designed to assess the impact of Social Security and other socioeconomic policy. The model incorporates recent methodological advances, and is characterized by five key features. (1) The model is fully structural and grounded in life-cycle optimizing behavior. (2) The model permits period-by-period decisions about labor supply and movements between labor market states. (3) All aspects of Social Security policy are modelled in complete detail, permitting examination of very specific changes in these policies. (4) Exact statistical inference about the effects of policy changes on the income and labor market behavior of older workers is provided. (5) The model incorporates both observed and unobserved heterogeneity; the absence of unobserved heterogeneity is a testable hypothesis. Taken together, these features provide the opportunity to ground the consideration of policy changes more firmly on an empirical foundation, and to provide appraisals in forms policymakers will find most useful. Upon completion, the project will also provide a methodological and empirical foundation for the subsequent investigation of other policies that affect the welfare of older Americans.