Spatial epidemiology of a vector-borne plant virus: interactions between landscape, hosts, vectors and an emerging disease of potatoes

马铃薯是世界第三大主食，马铃薯Y病毒(PVY)是马铃薯生产系统中最重要的病毒病。在过去的几十年里，欧洲和最近在北美出现了PVY重组菌株，它们正在传播，并与严重的块茎损伤有关。导致这些新毒株出现和传播的因素尚不清楚，但PVY是研究这种传染病的生态和进化的理想系统，因为病毒、宿主和媒介的所有组成部分都具有相对较好的特征。在这个项目中，我们将研究遗传、生理、生态、进化和环境因素，将其作为影响疾病传播的动态变量网络。我们将确定最重要的变量以及它们如何影响PVY在马铃薯植株内部和之间的传播。该项目解决了气候变化和欧洲对农用化学品使用的限制对农业生产构成的重大挑战。马铃薯生产需要高水平的投入，以确保供消费的作物产量高以及种子块茎种植材料的高质量。PVY和许多其他病毒疾病是通过蚜虫传播的，随着夏季更温暖、更干燥和冬季更温暖、更潮湿的天气模式的变化，随着蚜虫进入农作物的时间提前，蚜虫的数量正在增加。所获得的信息将用于开发不同农业生态系统中疾病风险的量化和预测模型，并制定利用农用化学品进行有针对性的干预以改进疾病控制的战略。PVY侵染了包括蔬菜、烟草和水果在内的多种其他作物，该项目开发的基本概念、模型和疾病管理工具将广泛适用于其他农业系统。

Potato is the world's third most important staple food and Potato virus Y (PVY) is the most important virus disease in most potato production systems. In the last few decades recombinant strains of PVY have emerged in Europe and more recently in N America that are spreading and are associated with serious tuber damage. Factors responsible for the emergence and spread of these new strains are unknown but PVY is an ideal system to study the ecology and evolution of this infectious disease because all of the components, the virus, the host and the vector, are relatively well characterised. In this project we will investigate genetic, physiological, ecological, evolutionary and environmental factors as a dynamic network of variables affecting disease spread. We will identify the most important variables and how they influence PVY spread within and between potato plants. This project addresses the significant challenges to agricultural production posed by changes in climate and the limitations on the use of agrochemicals in Europe. Potato production requires high levels of inputs to ensure high yields of crop for consumption as well as high quality of seed tuber planting material. PVY and many other virus diseases are transmitted by aphids and the changing weather patterns with warmer, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters is resulting in increasing aphid populations with the earlier arrival of aphids into the crops. The information gained will be used to develop quantitative and predictive models of disease risk in different agro-ecosystems and devise strategies for targeted intervention with agrochemicals for improved disease control. PVY infects a wide range of other crops including vegetables, tobacco and fruit and the underlying concepts, models and disease management tools developed in the project will have broad applicability in other agricultural systems.