A SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FERTILITY

这是一个关于社会经济决定因素的研究项目 伊朗的生育率。 我们的具体目标是(1)扩展我们的多元活动历史 对生育率进行分析，以检验和估计环境影响 并具体说明社会经济和社会发展的直接决定因素。 背景效应发挥作用；以及(2)评估生育率趋势。 伊斯兰革命后的一段时期，1979-1986。 目标(1)要求继续开发新的分析方法， 即事件历史建模和多层次分析的综合。 这是由Gibbs采样器促进的，Gibbs采样器是 允许具有许多未观测数量的模型的统计数据 很容易被指定。这里，未观测到的量是对 未测算的省、地生育率特点 社区，以及这位女士本人。为了评估避孕的效果， 我们只有“曾经使用”的数据，我们建议将其转化为 利用外部信息估计每个时间点的当前使用量 关于伊朗的总使用量。 为了实现目标(2)，我们将从1986年开始计算人口比率 人口普查，并将其与综合框架以及1976年和1966年的人口普查进行比较。至 将1986年的人口普查与综合框架数据进行比较需要我们将 事件历史模型参数估计为更熟悉的迭代函数系统 和可解释的人口比率，我们建议开发新的 做到这一点的方法。

This is a research project on the socioeconomic determinants of fertility in Iran. Our specific aims are (1) to extend our multivariate event history analysis of fertility so as to test for and estimate contextual effects and to specify the proximate determinants through which socioeconomic and contextual effects operate; and (2) to assess fertility trends during the period following the Islamic Revolution, 1979-1986. Aim (1) requires the continued development of new analytical methods, namely, the synthesis of event history modeling and multilevel analysis. This is facilitated by the Gibbs sampler, a recent innovation in statistics that allows models with many unobserved quantities to be easily specified. Here the unobserved quantities are the effects on fertility of unmeasured characteristics of the province, the local community, and the woman herself. To assess the effect of contraception, we have data only on "ever use", and we propose to translate that into estimates of current use at each time point by using external information on aggregate use in Iran. To implement aim (2), we will calculate demographic rates from the 1986 census and compare them with the IFS and the 1976 and 1966 censuses. To compare the 1986 census with the IFS data requires that we translate the event history model parameters estimated for the IFS into more familiar and interpretable demographic rates, and we propose to develop new methods for doing this.