Future Resilient Transport Networks - FUTURENET

目前关于交通运输和气候变化的讨论大多集中在交通运输对气候变化的影响上。事实上，许多缓解措施都集中在运输变化上，许多缓解措施都集中在运输部门。然而，FutureNet认识到，气候变化也对交通运输产生了影响。这种影响有两个方面：一个是由气候设计、天气事件和物理网络之间的相互作用产生的工程方面，另一个是由天气和气候以及运输需求模式之间的相互作用产生的社会经济方面。FutureNet在评估英国交通系统未来的弹性时将两者结合在一起。这种跨学科方法将协助利益攸关方调整运输网络，提高关键运输基础设施的复原力。具体来说，FutureNet试图为英国2050年的交通系统制定一些情景，并将调查每一种情景对气候变化影响的适应能力。调查将通过以下五个工作包进行：a)WP1--通过详细的文献调查和若干专家研讨会的结果，制定2050年英国可能的运输方案。b)WP2--为研究和开发一份涵盖所选路线的全部基础设施的基础设施清单确定路线走廊。c)WP3--运输系统故障模式的模型，该模型将确定气候对运输系统的影响的现有模型和阈值，并将在知识上存在差距的地方开发新的模型。d)WP4--模型开发和应用，它将制定一个总体模型框架，将WP3中确定的模型与WP1中概述的气候变化情景和运输情景结合起来，以便能够评估不同类型运输网络的复原力。e)WP5--通用工具和传播，通过它将以可获得的形式向各种利益攸关方提供项目成果，并将WP4模式应用于其他路线走廊。它既有可能加深对气候变化对运输系统影响的基础科学的理解，也有可能就如何提高这种系统的复原力提供信息和有用的工具。

Much current discussion about transport and climate change focuses on the impact of transport on climate change. Indeed, many mitigation measures are focussed upon the transport change, and many mitigation measures are focussed upon the transport sector. However, FUTURENET recognizes that climate change also has an impact on transport. This impact has two dimensions: an engineering dimension derived from the interaction between climate design, weather events and the physical network, and a socio-economic dimension derived from the interaction between weather and climate and the patterns of transport demand. FUTURENET integrates both in assessing the future resilience of the UK transport system. This interdisciplinary approach will assist stakeholders in adapting the transport network and increasing resilience of critical transport infrastructure. Specifically FUTURENET seeks to develop a number of scenarios for how the transport system in the UK might look in 2050, and will investigate the resilience of each of these scenarios to the effects of climate change. The investigation will be carried out through the five work packagesa) WP1- The development of possible UK transport scenarios for 2050, through detailed literature surveys and the results of a number of expert workshops.b) WP2 - Identification of route corridor for study and development of an inventory of infrastructure that covers the complete range of infrastructure for the chosen route.c) WP3 - Models of the failure modes of transport systems, which will identify existing models and thresholds for the effects of climate on transport systems, and will develop new models where there are gaps in knowledge.d) WP4- Model development and application, which will develop an overarching model framework that will combine the models identified in WP3 with climate change scenarios and the transport scenarios outlined in WP1, to enable the resilience of different types of transport network to be evaluated.e) WP5 - Generic Tools and Dissemination, through which the results of the project will be made available in an accessible form to a wide variety of stakeholders, and the model of WP4 made available for application to other route corridors.FUTURENET brings together a wide variety of academic expertise spanning the engineering, environmental and social sciences, together with a diverse group of stakeholders in the transport industry. It has the potential both to develop a deeper understanding of the underlying science on the effects of climate change on transport systems and to provide information and useful tools on how such systems can be made more resilient.