CAREER DECISIONS OF YOUNG MEN

本研究的目的是研究职业生涯的过程 发展 使用来自国家纵向研究的两个队列的数据， 劳动力市场经验的调查，这项研究将量化 年轻男性工人在各行业的劳动力流动程度， 在美国的职业，确定移动性在 种族/族裔群体，并确定随着时间的推移， 出生队列。 对改变期望的重要性的估计 未来的工资和就业前景， 并影响职业决策。 比较将 自愿流动的重要性，以应对 不断变化的期望和雇主发起的裁员， 失业和职业转变。 外生总体冲击的作用 (such随着石油冲击）在改变职业模式将被确定。 工业和职业的积累程度- 具体技能影响劳动力流动的模式，即，的 就业历史在多大程度上重要，并影响随后的 职业决定将在考虑未观察到的 不同个体的技能差异。 影响的估计 这些各种因素的职业生涯将在一个连贯的范围内获得 理论框架使用两个近似的最佳决策规则 的显式动态优化问题的精确解， 单独的.

The purpose of this research is to study the process of career development. Using data from two cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience, this research will quantify the extent of labor mobility of young male workers across industries and occupations in the U.S., determine how mobility differs across race/ethnic groups, and identify trends in mobility over time and across birth cohorts. Estimates of the importance of changing expectations about future wages and employment prospects in generating labor mobility and in influencing career decisions will be obtained. A comparison will be made between the importance of voluntary mobility in response to changing expectations and employer initiated layoffs in generating unemployment and career shifts. The role of exogenous aggregate shocks (such as oil shocks) in changing career patterns will be-ascertained. The extent to which the accumulation of industry- and occupation- specific skills influences the patterns of labor mobility, i.e., the extent to which employment histories matter, and affects subsequent career decisions will be estimated taking into account unobserved individual-specific differences in skills. Estimates of the influence on careers of these various factors will be obtained within a coherent theoretical framework using both approximations to optimal decision rules and exact solutions from the explicit dynamic optimization problem of the individual.