ESTIMATING RETIREMENT MODELS USING SUBJECTIVE DATA

使用主观数据估计退休模型

• 批准号: 2855845
• 负责人: KENNETH I WOLPIN
• 金额: $ 15.09万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-01-01 至 2001-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2855845
• 关键词: aging; behavior prediction; behavioral /social science research tag; choice; disability insurance; employment /unemployment; health surveys; human data; life cycle; method development; questionnaires; retirement; social model; socioeconomics; statistics /biometry

DESCRIPTION: The basic aim of this research is to improve understanding of retirement behavior. More specifically, the goal is to provide quantitative estimates of the impact of potential social security reforms on life cycle employment and savings behavior. To accomplish that goal, the proposed research will specify and structurally estimate dynamic models of retirement using the new Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) and incorporating health, mortality, savings, and social security rules. In that context, the specific aims of the project are: (1)to develop and validate methods for solving dynamic optimization models that involve discrete and continuous choice variables and state space elements; (2)to implement a stochastic dynamic model of retirement behavior in which individuals are making employment and savings decisions in a setting that accounts for uncertainty about future wages, future health and survival, and the future generosity of the Social Security System; (3)to develop methods for the validation of survey questions involving subjective expectations about the future environment (constraints) and future choices; (4)to develop and implement methods for the incorporation of data on subjective expectations into the estimation of dynamic models of retirement; (5) to simulate the effect of potential policy changes in social security rules on the savings and retirement decision and on welfare. The proposed research connects two broad areas of research. First, and primarily, it builds on recent empirical studies of retirement behavior, in particular on those adopting dynamic structural approaches. Second, the research contributes to the relatively new and growing literature of empirical studies that make use of subjective expectations.

描述：这项研究的基本目的是提高对 退休行为。更具体地说，目标是提供量化的 估计潜在的社会保障改革对生命周期的影响 就业和储蓄行为。为实现这一目标，拟议的 研究将具体说明并从结构上估计退休的动态模型 使用新的健康和退休调查(HRS)并纳入健康， 死亡率、储蓄和社会保障规则。在这方面， 该项目的具体目标是：(1)开发和验证用于 求解离散和连续的动态优化模型 选择变量和状态空间元素；(2)实现随机性 个人退休行为的动态模型 在考虑到不确定性的情况下做出就业和储蓄决定 关于未来的工资，未来的健康和生存，以及未来的慷慨 社会保障制度；(3)制定社会保障制度的验证方法 涉及对未来的主观预期的调查问题 环境(约束)和未来选择；(4)开发和实施 将有关主观期望的数据纳入 退役动态模型的估计；(5)模拟退役的影响 社会保障规则中关于储蓄和储蓄的潜在政策变化 退休决定和福利。这项拟议的研究将两个 广泛的研究领域。首先，也是主要的，它建立在最近的 退休行为的实证研究，特别是对那些收养的人 动态结构方法。第二，这项研究有助于 相对较新和不断增长的实证研究文献，这些文献利用 主观期望值。