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ESTIMATING RETIREMENT MODELS USING SUBJECTIVE DATA

使用主观数据估计退休模型

基本信息

批准号：
6341518
负责人：
KENNETH I WOLPIN
金额：
$ 15.58万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1998
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1998-01-01 至 2004-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6341518
关键词：
aging behavior prediction behavioral /social science research tag choice disability insurance employment /unemployment health surveys human data life cycle method development questionnaires retirement social model socioeconomics statistics /biometry

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION: The basic aim of this research is to improve understanding of retirement behavior. More specifically, the goal is to provide quantitative estimates of the impact of potential social security reforms on life cycle employment and savings behavior. To accomplish that goal, the proposed research will specify and structurally estimate dynamic models of retirement using the new Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) and incorporating health, mortality, savings, and social security rules. In that context, the specific aims of the project are: (1)to develop and validate methods for solving dynamic optimization models that involve discrete and continuous choice variables and state space elements; (2)to implement a stochastic dynamic model of retirement behavior in which individuals are making employment and savings decisions in a setting that accounts for uncertainty about future wages, future health and survival, and the future generosity of the Social Security System; (3)to develop methods for the validation of survey questions involving subjective expectations about the future environment (constraints) and future choices; (4)to develop and implement methods for the incorporation of data on subjective expectations into the estimation of dynamic models of retirement; (5) to simulate the effect of potential policy changes in social security rules on the savings and retirement decision and on welfare. The proposed research connects two broad areas of research. First, and primarily, it builds on recent empirical studies of retirement behavior, in particular on those adopting dynamic structural approaches. Second, the research contributes to the relatively new and growing literature of empirical studies that make use of subjective expectations.

描述：本研究的基本目的是提高对退休行为。更具体地说，目标是提供定量的潜在社会保障改革对生命周期影响的估计就业和储蓄行为。为了实现这一目标，建议研究将详细说明并结构性地估计退休的动态模型使用新的健康和退休调查（HRS）并将健康纳入其中，死亡率、储蓄和社会保障规则。在此背景下，该项目的具体目标是：（1）开发和验证方法求解涉及离散和连续的动态优化模型选择变量和状态空间元素； (2) 实现随机个人退休行为的动态模型在考虑不确定性的情况下的就业和储蓄决策关于未来的工资、未来的健康和生存以及未来的慷慨社会保障体系； (3)制定验证方法涉及对未来主观预期的调查问题环境（约束）和未来的选择； (4)制定并实施将主观期望数据纳入预测的方法退休动态模型的估计； (5) 模拟效果关于储蓄和社会保障规则的潜在政策变化退休决定和福利。拟议的研究将两个广泛的研究领域。首先，也是主要的是，它建立在最近的对退休行为的实证研究，特别是那些采用动态结构方法。其次，该研究有助于相对较新且不断增长的实证研究文献利用了主观期望。