CAREER DECISIONS OF YOUNG MEN

本研究的目的是研究职业生涯的发展过程。 发展。使用来自《国家纵向》杂志两个队列的数据 劳动力市场体验调查，这项研究将量化 年轻男性工人在不同行业和地区的劳动力流动程度 美国的职业决定了不同国家的移动性有何不同 种族/民族群体，并确定随时间和跨地区流动的趋势 出生队列。对改变预期的重要性的估计 关于产生劳动力流动的未来工资和就业前景 在影响职业生涯决策方面也会有所收获。如果进行比较， 在自愿流动的重要性与应对 不断变化的预期和雇主发起的裁员 失业和职业转变。外源总量冲击的作用 改变职业模式(如石油冲击)的影响将被确定。 产业和职业的积累程度 特定技能影响劳动力流动的模式，即 就业历史的重要程度，以及对后续工作的影响程度 职业决策将考虑到未被观察到的因素进行评估 个人在技能上的差异。对影响的估计 这些不同因素的职业生涯将在一个连贯的 使用两种近似的最优决策规则的理论框架 的显式动态优化问题的精确解 个人的。

The purpose of this research is to study the process of career development. Using data from two cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience, this research will quantify the extent of labor mobility of young male workers across industries and occupations in the U.S., determine how mobility differs across race/ethnic groups, and identify trends in mobility over time and across birth cohorts. Estimates of the importance of changing expectations about future wages and employment prospects in generating labor mobility and in influencing career decisions will be obtained. A comparison will be made between the importance of voluntary mobility in response to changing expectations and employer initiated layoffs in generating unemployment and career shifts. The role of exogenous aggregate shocks (such as oil shocks) in changing career patterns will be-ascertained. The extent to which the accumulation of industry- and occupation- specific skills influences the patterns of labor mobility, i.e., the extent to which employment histories matter, and affects subsequent career decisions will be estimated taking into account unobserved individual-specific differences in skills. Estimates of the influence on careers of these various factors will be obtained within a coherent theoretical framework using both approximations to optimal decision rules and exact solutions from the explicit dynamic optimization problem of the individual.