DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS OF CHILDHOOD DISEASE AND MORTALITY

这项工作的长期目标是制定一个系统的，动态的， 人口框架，在此框架内分析个人层面和 传染病引起的人口发病率和死亡率模式 疾病 这项拟议的研究旨在描述流行病学和 发病率和死亡率随时间变化的人口统计学机制 空气传播的儿科传染病造成的死亡率 在人类身上。 该项目的具体目标是： 1.确定接触和传播中的年龄特异性模式， 可以驱动年龄结构流行病模型中的周期; 2.扩展正式人口统计学的方法，以开发和应用计算 疾病水平周期和振幅的公式， 这种年龄特异性; 3.研究季节性和随机扰动对 疾病流行的周期性变化特征。 拟议工作的一项主要成果将是确定 定量和定性标准，以区分 不同的周期机制。 这些标准可以产生 关于疫苗接种时间表可能产生的后果的广泛指导方针 在一系列接触率规格下。 一个正式的组合 动力学分析和仿真研究将用于实现这些 目标。 这些目标将得到同时进行但单独进行的工作的支持 关于制订数据分析标准和方法的 分析MDC和LDC数据集。

The long term goal of this work is to develop a systematic, dynamic demographic framework within which to analyze individual-level and population-level morbidity and mortality patterns stemming from infectious diseases. This proposed research aims to characterize epidemiologic and demographic mechanisms underlying temporal variability in morbidity and mortality caused by aerogenically transmitted pediatric infectious diseases in humans. The specific objectives of this project are to: 1. Identify patterns of age-specificity in contact and transmission which can drive cycles in age-structured epidemic models; 2. Extend methods of formal demography to develop and apply computational formulae for period and amplitude of cycles in disease level generated by such age-specificity; 3. Study the effects of seasonality and stochastic perturbations on the characteristics of cyclical variation in disease prevalence. A major outcome of the proposed work will be the identification of quantitative and qualitative criteria to distinguish the consequences of different mechanisms underlying cyclicity. These criteria could yield broad guidelines for the possible consequences of vaccination schedules under a range of contact rate specifications. A combination of formal dynamical analysis and simulation studies will be used to achieve these aims. These objectives will be supported by concurrent but separate work on the development of data-analytic criteria and methodology for the analysis of MDC and LDC data sets.