Agent-based Modelling of Electricity Networks (AMEN)

该项目旨在为英国研究委员会（UK Research council）所组织的工作做出重大的原创贡献——遵循政府层面的建议——以提高英国能源建模的国际形象和国家战略影响。它将为决策者和电力部门寻求在2050年前实现减排和可行、安全的能源供应的关键问题提供有价值的见解——无论是定量的还是定性的。它将在电力网络的背景下，从复杂系统研究的密切相关的观点出发，在最终使用行为、技术动态和工业能源等领域解决整个能源系统建模的一般弱点。根据气候变化委员会的说法，为了实现政府具有挑战性的减排目标，到2030年左右，发电将几乎完全脱碳。因此，随着热能和运输电气化的步伐加快，电力很可能会变得比目前37%的排放份额更重要。这对电力基础设施有着巨大的影响。另一个基本假设是，正如政府最近的能源法案草案所表明的那样，电力市场将进行重组。这些可能改变游戏规则的发展将塑造这个项目。所使用的方法将基于德蒙福特大学（De Montfort University）创新的基于代理的电力市场建模框架CASCADE，该框架迄今主要用于探索最终用户与智能技术之间的关系；分布式发电机在低压和中压水平的预期快速渗透；需求主体更积极参与；新的通信协议；还有智能能源控制器。将拟订《框架》，以改进和扩大其大规模发电、输电网络、批发电力市场的模式以及在长期尺度上模拟技术采用和扩散的能力，以便处理诸如地点定价等可能发展的相互关系和复杂影响；配电网运营商更丰富的代理模式；基于经济信号的拥堵管理；调整平衡机制。一个关键原则是，将通过可获取的数据描述和高度集中和结构化的传播活动，向利益攸关方明确建模方法、假设和局限性。

The project seeks to make a significant and original contribution to efforts being marshalled by the UK Research Councils - following government level advice - to improve the international profile and national strategic impact of energy modelling in the UK. It will provide valuable insights - both quantitative and qualitative - into questions of key importance fpr policymakers and the power sector as they seek to square the circle of emissions reduction and a viable, secure energy supply by 2050. It will address in the context of the electricity network, perceived general weaknesses in whole energy systems modelling - from the closely related standpoint of complex systems research - in the areas of end-use behaviour, technology dynamics, and energy in industry. According to the Committee on Climate Change, to meet the Government's challenging emissions reduction goals would require almost complete decarbonisation of electricity generation by around 2030. It is highly likely therefore that electricity will become even more significant than its current 37% share of emissions implies, as moves towards the electrification of heat and transport accelerate. This has huge implications for the electricity infrastructure. Another fundamental assumption is that there will be a restructuring of the electricity market as signalled in the Government's recent Draft Energy Bill. These potentially game-changing developments will shape the project. The approach used will be based on De Montfort University's innovative agent-based electricity market modeling Framework known as CASCADE, which so far has been used mainly to explore the relationship between end-users and smart technology; the expected rapid infiltration of distributed generators at low and medium voltage levels; more active participation by demand entities; new communication protocols; and smart energy controllers. The Framework will be developed to improve and expand its models of large-scale generation, the transmission network, the wholesale electricity market and the ability to model technology adoption and diffusion on long time-scales, in order to address the interrelationships and complex effects of such possible developments as Locational Pricing; richer agency models for Distribution Network Operators; congestion management based on economic signals; a restructured Balancing Mechanism.A key principle will be that the modelling methods, assumptions and and limitations will be made clear to stakeholders through accessible data description and highly focussed and structured dissemination activities.