Coherent inference over a network of probabilistic systems for decision support with applications to food security.

不同的专家小组通过各自的概率模型的输出提供他们的判断和佐证。然后，需要通过它们的输入和输出将它们连接在一起，以提供统一的推理基础来支持决策支持。不同的专家小组共享该领域的定性特征作为共同知识，通常以商定的图形模型表示。一位主观预期效用最大化的政策制定者现在计划采用适当领域专家小组的概率判断作为自己的判断。然后，她将使用这个统一的统计模型，将不同的证据收集到一个统一的、可辩护的整体中，并用它来指导她的政策评估。我们将开发这种正式的、可辩护的统计方法。因此，我们将为不同类型的动态图形模型在相关证据被纳入系统之前和之后保持一致找到充分的条件。当系统的完整性遭到破坏时，我们将制定适当的方法来衡量这种违反的程度。代数统计学的最新进展不仅将用于研究在已知用户效用函数的代数形式时如何放松对一致性的要求，而且还将指导相关的计算算法。这一发展将由政策制定者的需求以及专家和研究人员用于英国粮食安全的结构和信息库来指导

Different panels of experts each provide their judgments together with supporting evidence through the outputs of their own probabilistic models. These then need to be networked together via their inputs and outputs to provide a unifying inferential foundation to underpin decision support. The different panels of experts share as common knowledge qualitative features of the domain often expressed as an agreed graphical model. A subjective expected utility maximising policy maker now plans to adopt the probabilistic judgments of the appropriate domain expert panels as her own. She will then use this unifying statistical model to draw together the disparate evidence into a single coherent and defensible whole and use this to guide her policy evaluation. We will develop this formal and defensible statistical methodology. Thus we will find sufficient conditions for different types of dynamic graphical models to remain coherent before and after relevant evidence is accommodated into the system. When the integrity of the system is violated we will develop methods which appropriately measure the extent of this violation. Recent advances in algebraic statistics will be used not only to investigate how such demands for coherence might be relaxed when the algebraic form of a user's utility function is known but will also guide associated computational algorithms. The development will be directed by the needs of policy makers and the structure and information bases used by experts and researchers into UK food security