Modelling the Political, Societal and Regulatory Implementation of the UK Energy System Decarbonisation Transition

传统的平衡和优化能源系统建模方法在过去的二十年中被广泛用于确定部署低碳、零碳甚至负碳能源技术的时间和规模，作为深度脱碳途径的关键要素，以在2100年之前保持在2C的温度目标内。首先，缺乏对大规模脱碳的经济权衡的更详细的分析（超越单一的最佳决策者）;第二，与这种过渡的政治动态（包括制度和监管要求）的明确联系;第三，对社会可接受性的理解，大规模低碳技术吸收的驱动因素和学习。为了帮助填补这些重大遗漏，新兴的社会技术能源转型（STET）领域是一种创新和令人兴奋的方法。STET方法的特点是多层次的治理，一系列的经济，技术和社会反馈，以及许多决策者。尝试将这样一个丰富的概念方法付诸实施（例如通过EPSRC的实现转型途径项目）采取了跨学科和参与性的利益相关者方法，汇集了来自研究、政策、行业和更广泛社会的定量和定性贡献。复杂和可扩展的建模框架，明确针对回答能源决策者的实际问题。因此，该范围界定建议有两个主要目标：1.将正式的STET模型--关于不同的经济参与者、必要的政策一致性和社会接受度--应用于能源系统框架内的大规模低碳技术部署。2.将这一过程嵌入到互动和双向的利益相关者参与中，以确保STET建模满足不同的英国能源决策者的要求。这项范围界定研究的主要工具是行为、生活方式和不确定性能源模型（BLUE）;这是英国能源系统的系统动力学模型，随着能源转型的展开，该模型模拟了能源使用和排放。主要的利益相关者参与将是一对协调的专家研讨会，与迭代的双向项目网站相结合，以实现STET模型开发和应用的决策剧场方法。这是一个固有的跨学科范围项目，将从经济，政治，制度，监管和社会角度更好地定义大规模脱碳技术的“真实的世界”可行性。因此，它将为将STET建模与英国能源决策者需求联系起来的完整项目奠定基础。

Conventional equilibrium and optimisation energy systems modelling approaches have been extensively used over the last two decades to identify the timing and scale for the deployment of low, zero or even negative carbon energy technologies as the key element of deep decarbonisation pathways to stay within a 2C temperature target by 2100.However, these approaches suffer from a set of major simplifications. First, the lack of more detailed analysis on the economic trade-offs of large scale decarbonisation (beyond a single optimal decision maker); second, a clear link to the political dynamics (including the institutional and regulatory requirements) of such a transition; and third, an understanding of the societal acceptability, drivers and learning of large-scale low carbon technology uptake. To help fill these major omissions, the emerging field of socio-technical energy transitions (STET) is an innovative and exciting approach. The STET approach is characterised by multi-level governance, a range of economic, technological and social feedbacks, and by many decision makers. Attempts to operationalise such a rich conceptual approach (for example via EPSRC's Realizing Transitions Pathways project) has taken an interdisciplinary and participatory stakeholder approach that brought together quantitative and qualitative contributions from research, policy, industry and wider society.To make STET analysis relevant for the implementation of energy system trilemma goals, requires transparent, sophisticated and scalable modelling frameworks that are explicitly targeted to answer the actual questions that energy decision makers have.Therefore this scoping proposal has two primary goals:1. To apply formal STET modelling - on heterogeneous economic actors, necessary policy consistency, and societal acceptance - to large-scale low carbon technology deployment within an energy systems framework. 2. To embed this process within an interactive and bidirectional stakeholder engagement to ensure that STET modelling meets the requirements of diverse UK energy decision makers. The main tool for this scoping study is the Behaviour, Lifestyles and Uncertainty Energy model (BLUE); a system dynamics model of the UK energy system that simulates energy use and emissions through time as an energy transition unfolds. The main stakeholder engagement will be a coordinated pair of expert workshops, allied to an iterative bidirectional project website to enable a decision theatre approach to STET model development and application.This is an inherently interdisciplinary scoping project that will better define the 'real world' feasibility of large-scale decarbonisation technology from a range of economic, political, institutional, regulatory and societal perspectives. It will hence lay the groundwork for a full project of linking STET modelling with UK energy decision maker needs.