A Resilience Modelling Framework for Improved Nuclear Safety (NuRes)

福岛核电站和切尔诺贝利核电站等核电站发生的事故，提高了公众对系统故障可能造成的严重后果的认识。然而，随着对能源需求的增加和对低碳能源的需求，包括英国和印度在内的许多国家都将核能发电视为满足这些需求的重要因素。风险分析方法起源于20世纪70年代，它要求对可能发生在核系统上的潜在危害的频率和后果进行评价。正是这些方法一直在使用，并且仍然在使用，以确保核能发电的安全。然而，自从风险分析方法的概念出现以来，由于技术的进步，工程系统的特性发生了重大变化。计算机控制系统和自主系统的使用现在很普遍，这给系统带来了新的漏洞。由于与全球变暖相关的恶劣天气条件以及日益受到关注的蓄意恐怖袭击和网络攻击，可能导致安全问题的故障和威胁事件的范围随着新出现的威胁而增加。新的、目前未知的威胁类型很可能会继续出现。系统的这些变化及其脆弱性和威胁意味着需要能够应对这些新要求的新方法，以确保未来反应堆核能生产的安全和保障。当考虑潜在危险工厂的安全关键系统的有效性时，弹性工程被认为提供了显著的好处。这种方法着眼于设计能够经历威胁的系统，并有几种方法（称为维度）使系统能够避免，承受，适应或从其影响中恢复。本项目考察了弹性工程在核安全系统背景下可能提供的好处。它指出了预测核电站恢复能力所需的模型和数据。将制定这些模型并将其应用于演示系统。通过这种预测工具，可以设计和操作现代核系统，以达到高水平的安全要求。该框架将特别关注深思熟虑的、有意的网络攻击，以及人类在威胁发生后系统恢复中可以发挥的作用。

Accidents at nuclear plants, such as those at Fukushima and Chernobyl, have increased the public awareness of the severe consequences that can result when system failures occur. However, as the demand for energy increases and low-carbon sources are required, many countries, including the UK and India, see nuclear power generation as an important contributor to meeting these needs.Risk analysis methods, which originated in the 1970s, require the evaluation of the frequency and consequences of the potential hazards which can occur on nuclear systems. It is these methods which have been used, and are still used, to ensure the safety of nuclear power generation. However, since the conception of the risk analysis approaches, the characteristics of engineering systems have undergone significant changes due to the advances which have occurred in technology. Computer control systems and the use of autonomous systems are now common and this introduces new vulnerabilities to the system. The range of failures and threat events which can cause safety issues is increasing with newly emerging threats due to the severe weather conditions associated with global warming and deliberate terrorist attacks and cyber-attacks of increasing concern. It is likely that new, currently unknown, threat types will continue to emerge. These changes in the systems, their vulnerabilities and their threats mean that new approaches, capable of dealing with these new requirements are needed to ensure the safety and security of nuclear energy production for future reactors. Resilience engineering is considered to offer significant benefits when considering the effectiveness of safety critical systems on potentially hazardous plants. This approach looks at designing systems which are capable of experiencing threats and have several approaches (known as dimensions) which enable the system to avoid, withstand, adapt to or recover from their effects. This project examines the benefits that resilience engineering could offer in the context of nuclear safety systems. It indicates the models and data required to predict the resilience of a nuclear power generation plant. Such models will be formulated and applied to a demonstrator system. Through this predictive tool modern nuclear systems can be designed and operated to achieve the high levels of safety demanded. Special attention in the framework will be given to deliberated, intended cyber-attacks and also the role in which humans can play in the recovery of the system following a threat.