PROBABILITIES OF DRUNKEN DRIVING AMONG U S PUBLIC

酒后驾车是一个主要的公共健康问题，但无论是 这个问题的实际发生率和流行率都是已知的。最新进展 真正有效的预防、威慑和干预手段 继续受到这种信息匮乏的阻碍。 长期目标：本提案旨在解决这一问题 一种新的、更具差异化的方法存在问题，应该 为准确确定实际情况提供方法学依据 酒后驾车的发生率和流行率。这种方法应该 还提供了估计以下概率的统计基础 酒后驾驶(酒后驾驶)，如 以及开车的公众--包括被判酒后驾车的司机。 这种方法基于四个并行的、相互关联的项目 关注的是美国不同但相互依存的部分 酒后驾车公众：(1)一般成年人；(2)夜间活动 驾驶人口，(3)被判酒后驾车的初犯人口，以及(4) 酒后驾车第二次违法者人数。其基本原理来自于 分析这些相互关联的种群的已知特征以 确定那些“酗酒者”之间的相似之处， 以及他们和那些不这样做的人之间的差异。 具体目标包括开发、中试测试和 交叉验证统计方法(基于四个人口 和之前的研究)用于：(1)估计驾驶的概率 高、低或不含酒精，适用于普通人群中选定的子集 人口；(2)估计开车的发生率和流行率为零， 血液酒精浓度低、中、高；以及(3)早期 识别和诊断高危问题--酒后驾车。 具体目标将通过多变量分析来实现 大多数受试者的三个数据域：(1)自我报告的背景 数据，加上酒后驾车和酒后驾车信息 态度；(2)正式的司机记录，包括接触前和接触后，以及(3) 在选定的时间呼吸酒精(例如，当被逮捕时，出现在 庭审和缓刑审查)。将使用这三个域中的数据 对于选定的交叉验证以及子总体描述， 关于酒精计划遵从性和未来醉酒的预后 驾驶，并及早识别和诊断高风险饮酒 司机。

Drinking and driving is a major public health problem, but neither the actual incidence nor prevalence of the problem is known. The development of truly effective means for preventing, deterring, and intervening continue to be hampered by this lack of information. Long-Term Objectives: The present proposal is designed to address this problem with a new and more differentiated approach, one which should provide the methodological basis for accurately determining the actual incidence and prevalence of driving after drinking. This approach should also provide the statistical basis for estimating the probabilities of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among the general public, as well as among the motoring public--including drivers convicted of DUI. This approach is based upon four concurrent, interrelated projects which are focused on different, but interdependent segments of the American drinking and driving public: (1) general adult population, (2) nocturnal driving population, (3) convicted first DUI offender population, and (4) convicted second DUI offender population. The basic rationale derives from analyzing the known characteristics in these interrelated populations to determine the similarities among those who "get into trouble with alcohol," as well as the differences between them and those who do not. The specific aims consist of developing, pilot testing, and cross-validating statistical methodologies (based upon the four populations and prior research) for: (1) estimating the probabilities of driving with high, low, or no alcohol for individuals in selected subsets of the general population; (2) estimating the incidence and prevalence of driving at zero, low, medium, and high blood alcohol concentrations; and (3) early identification and diagnosis of high-risk problem-drinker drivers. The specific aims will be accomplished through multivariate analyses of three domains of data for most subjects: (1) self-reported background data, plus drinking, driving, and drinking-and-driving information and attitudes; (2) official driver record, both pre-and post-contact, and (3) breath alcohol at selected times (e.g., when arrested, appearance at sessions, and probation reviews). Data in these three domains will be used for selected cross-validations, as well as for subpopulation description, prognoses regarding both alcohol program compliance and future drunken driving, and early identification and diagnosis of high-risk drinking drivers.