Re-negotiating the Social Contract in the GCC: State-Business Relations and Reforms in the Oil-Rentier Gulf Monarchies

本项目涉及海湾合作理事会（GCC）国家[巴林，科威特，阿曼，卡塔尔，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋]在过去十年中经济和社会变革的动态和影响。海湾合作委员会国家具有全球地缘政治重要性（占世界石油储量的40%），它们是阿拉伯世界经济的核心，阿拉伯世界最重要的资产阶级可以说是在这里崛起的。它探讨了海湾合作委员会的商业界的演变和地位，它与“国家”和政权的关系，以及它的看法和在该地区试图改革的作用。基于同样的原因，本书探讨了这些改革对这些政治体制中商界的命运、构成和角色的影响，包括对国家与商界关系的影响。20世纪“食利者”时期统治家族建立的社会契约--通过免费教育、医疗、住房和高薪政府工作来重新分配石油租金;给予历史上重要的部落/家庭关键职位，给予国民经济垄断权;在法律上使侨民从属于国民-这反过来意味着国民和民间社会不干涉国内政治。对未来石油收入、全球化和人口增长的担忧降低了石油租金发展模式的可行性，并使海湾合作委员会精英前所未有地意识到需要重新思考其国家的社会经济结构。虽然过去的高油价可以说减轻了多元化的压力，但最近的高油价时期恰逢持续的自由化改革，包括国家角色的变化，经济多元化政策，劳动力市场改革，医疗和教育改革-所有这些都伴随着初露端倪的政治改革。当前的改革浪潮影响着这些国家的福利模式、经济结构和商业社会学的定义，也具有全球影响。与此同时，对于伦蒂埃国家理论以及政治和经济改革的研究来说，它们也代表了一个表面上的悖论，以及一系列悬而未决的问题。商业精英在支持既定的社会政治秩序和塑造政治合法性方面发挥了决定性作用，同时也发挥了相关的经济作用--尽管这些作用经历了重大转变。当前转变的性质、程度和影响是本项目的中心主题，包括“资产阶级”在这些制度的更广泛的社会政治演变中可能发挥的作用。（治理、教育和司法）：调查改革本身，它们与企业界之间的相互影响，以及这对改变国家与企业关系的启示。但其目的也是解释这些动态告诉我们关于社会契约和政治自由化与威权主义的未来更广泛的问题。一个关键的假设是，这些经济精英与统治精英之间的距离或远近，决定性地影响着每个国家经济改革政策的方向、实施和效果。在更广泛的层面上，在重新谈判社会契约的关键时期，对海湾君主制国家的国家-企业关系进行调查，可以揭示三个更广泛的问题：（1）经济精英在决策过程中的作用，以及在后殖民独裁政权的自由化/巩固中的作用;（2）该地区发生的社会变化，新一代人，直接受到这些政策的影响，对传统的社会模式提出质疑，并在通常被视为单一和传统的社会中施加新的动力;（3）在其他地区和其他社会背景下研究的经济自由化进程的动力。

This project concerns the dynamics and implications of the economic and social transformations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states [Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE] over the last decade. The GCC states are of global geopolitical importance (40% of world oil reserves), they are at the heart of the Arab world's economy, and it is here that the Arab world's most significant bourgeoisie has arguably been emerging. It examines the evolution and position of the GCC's business community, its relations with 'state' and regime, and its perceptions of and roles in the reforms attempted in the region. By the same token, it investigates the impact of these reforms on the fortunes, composition and roles of the business community in these polities, including on state-business relations.The social contract established by the ruling families during the 'rentier' period in the 20th Century - redistributing oil rent through free education, health care, housing, and well-paid government jobs; granting key positions to historically important tribes/families and economic monopolies to nationals; and legally subordinating expatriates to nationals - implied in return the non-interference of nationals and civil society in domestic politics. Fears over future oil revenue, globalisation and population growth & expectation reduced the viability of the oil-rent model of development, and brought an unprecedented awareness by GCC elites of the need to rethink their states' socio-economic structures. While past high oil prices arguably reduced the pressure to diversify, the latest period of high prices has instead coincided with sustained liberalising reforms, including changes in the role of the state, economic diversification policies, labour market reforms, health and educational reforms - all alongside fledgling political reforms. The current raft of reforms, affecting the definition of the welfare model, the structure of economy, and the sociology of business in these states, also have global implications. At the same time they represent a prima facie paradox, and a range of unanswered questions, for Rentier State Theory and the study of political and economic reform. The business elite has had a decisive role in supporting the established socio-political order and shaping political legitimacy, alongside its related economic role - even if these roles underwent important shifts. The nature, extent and implications of the current shift is the central subject of this project, including the role this 'bourgeoisie' might play in a broader socio-political evolution of these systems.The subject will be approached primarily through the economic reforms and those that relate to it (governance, education and judicial): investigating the reforms themselves, the mutual impact between them and the business community, and what this tells us about changing state-business relations. But the aim is also to interpret what these dynamics tell us about the wider questions of the social contract and the future of political liberalisation vs. authoritarianism. A key hypothesis is that the proximity or distance of these economic elites vis-à-vis the ruling elite decisively affects the orientation, implementation and effectiveness of each state's economic reform policies.At a wider level, investigating state-business relations in the Gulf monarchies in this critical period of re-negotiation of the social contract throws light on three broader issues: (1) the role of the economic elite in the decision-making process and in the liberalisation/ consolidation of post-colonial authoritarian regimes; (2) the social changes occurring in this region, where new generations, directly affected by these policies, call into question the inherited social model and impose new dynamics in societies usually seen as monolithic and traditional; (3) the dynamics of economic liberalisation processes as studied in other regions and in other social contexts.