The e-Resilience of British Retail Centres

尽管在Portas审查（Portas 2011）之后采取了行动，很明显，英国零售业仍然处于危机之中。这一点最明显地体现在，自上世纪30年代（至少）以来持续时间最长的经济衰退开始后，零售场所出现了前所未有的空置率。在英国，空置率估计为14.2% (LDC, 2013)，尽管这个全国数字掩盖了非常大的地方差异。例如，在英格兰政府办公区之间，税率从7.5%（伦敦）到17.5%（西北）不等；一些城镇中心的空置率高达34% （Morecambe West End: LDC, 2013）。越来越多的证据表明，不同形式的电子商务的出现和整合正在加剧当地经济状况对传统零售业的影响——据估计，在2003年至2010年期间，电子商务占英国所有零售销售增长的近一半（Javelin Group, 2011）——以及移动商务（使用移动技术）的出现。这项建议建立在2005年ESRC电子社会计划的成功研究的基础上，然而，自从这项工作完成以来，互联网的使用率从60%增长到73%，更重要的是，使用宽带的用户比例从31%增加到71% （ONS 2010）——这是采用新的和日益丰富的媒体用户体验的结果。在同一时期，无线宽带（3G或WiFi）的可用性有所增加，其成本有所下降，而新一代移动电话（通常具有地理定位功能）已被广泛采用（Haklay et al 2008）。该项目涉及与当地数据公司（LDC）的创新合作，该公司收集了许多关于英国零售业构成和健康状况的独特数据。该项目涉及衡量零售集水区的“e-Resilience”。我们根据零售中心对大量使用信息和通信技术的消费者的暴露程度以及这些技术所支持的虚拟零售渠道来定义零售的e-Resilience。因此，这项研究有三个主要方面：(a)创建英国零售中心的传统集水区；(b)在小范围内衡量资讯及通讯科技的使用情况，并为传统的集水区制订“电子应变能力”撮要措施；(c)就零售中心集水区及其电子应变能力进行敏感度分析。该项目的产出将包括一系列衍生数据集，可用于确定零售计划中KEO和KTP项目的资助组合，包括：LSOA级别的全国e-Resilience分类；一个零售中心传统集水区的全国数据库，利用零售结构和空置单位的最佳可用数据建立；以及一个全国性的零售中心集水区数据库，该数据库考虑了e-Resilience和当前的结构和空置率。

Despite actions following the Portas Review (Portas 2011), it is clear that UK retailing remains in crisis. This is most obviously manifest in the unprecedented vacancy rates of retail premises that have arisen following the onset of the longest economic downturn since the 1930s (at least). Within Great Britain, estimates of vacancy rates stand at 14.2% (LDC, 2013), although this national figure masks very considerable local variation. For example, between the Government Office Regions of England, rates vary from a low of 7.5% (London) through to 17.5% (North West); with some town centre vacancy rates as high as 34% (Morecambe West End: LDC, 2013). There is increasing evidence that the effects of local economic conditions upon conventional retailing are being compounded by the emergence and consolidation of different forms of e-commerce - which is estimated to have accounted for nearly half of all retail sales growth in the UK between 2003 and 2010 (Javelin Group, 2011) - and the emergence of m-commerce (using mobile technologies).This proposal builds upon successful research that was concluded as part of the ESRC e-Society Programme in 2005, however, since this work was completed, the use of the Internet has grown from 60% to 73%, and more significantly, the percentage of users with access to broadband has increased from 31% to 71% (ONS 2010) - with consequences for adoption of new and increasingly media rich user experiences. Over the same period the availability of wireless broadband (3G or WiFi) has increased and its costs have fallen, while new generation mobile handsets (often with geolocation functionality) have been widely adopted (Haklay et al 2008). The project involves an innovative collaboration with the Local Data Company (LDC) who collect numerous unique data on the composition and health of British retailing. The project concerns the measurement of "e-Resilience" in relation to retail catchment areas. We define retail e-Resilience in terms of the extent to which retail centres are exposed to consumers who are heavily engaged with information and communication technologies, and the virtual retail channels that these enable. As such, there are three main strands to this research: (a) to create conventional catchment areas of British retail centres; (b) to measure engagement with information and communication technologies at a small area level and create a summary "e-Resilience" measure for the conventional catchments; (c) to conduct sensitivity analysis on retail centre catchments and their e-Resilience. Outputs from the project will include a series of derived datasets, that can be used to give shape to the funded portfolio of KEO and KTP projects within the Retail Programme including: A nationwide classification of e-Resilience at the LSOA level; a nationwide database of conventional catchments for retail centres, built using the best available data on retail structure and vacant units; and, a nationwide database of retail centre catchments that takes into account e-Resilience and current structure and vacancy rates.