Business decision-making in conditions of constitutional and political uncertainty in the UK and Scotland: An inductive study and scenario analysis

该项目涉及对在苏格兰运营的一系列具有战略重要性的部门和行业的中型和大型公司的高级商业领袖进行长达60次的采访。该项目的目的是探索苏格兰和联合王国宪法和政治不确定条件下的商业决策，并围绕苏格兰独立公投的不同可能结果制定一些替代方案。例如，苏格兰公投支持独立意味着围绕财政和货币政策变化、行业监管、可能采用何种货币、参与国际经济和政治协议等方面的不确定性。同样，投票支持欧盟也可能带来其他不确定性，包括英国未来是否加入欧盟，或者未来苏格兰独立公投前景带来的长期不确定性。这些不确定性对在苏格兰运营的企业有影响，包括是否投资和扩大产能、退出市场、将业务设在英国、欧洲或世界其他地方等。这种影响也可能因个别企业或不同部门和行业而有所不同。然而，目前缺乏研究表明不确定性正在或可能对商业活动产生影响。因此，这项提案解决了一种迫切的需求，即进行独立、客观和系统的研究，以确定哪些关键不确定性是商界领袖最担心的，以及它们如何影响商业决策、商界领袖在不同的独立投票结果下可能做出的决定，以及由此产生的可能因公投而展开的替代情景。这项研究议程旨在产生证据，帮助商业决策者、政策制定官员和公众评估和预测苏格兰独立公投对商业决策的影响。通过确定商界领袖关注的关键不确定性类型，开发商业领袖在英国和苏格兰宪法和政治不确定性背景下可能做出的决策的决策类型，并围绕可能的独立投票结果开发替代情景，该研究提案还寻求为商业决策者、政策制定官员和公众提供决策工具，以改善和支持在这种情况下的决策。这类概念工具还将有助于向更广泛的公众辩论苏格兰独立公投对商业决策的影响，因为它将研究证据带入商业决策的影响--就商业决策的影响而言，迄今基本上是猜测。本项目采用的研究方法是归纳、半结构化、定性访谈，旨在揭示企业领导人最关心的不确定性，以及不确定性可能对商业决策产生影响的程度。在可能的独立公投结果的背景下制定决策类型，以及开发替代情景，将有助于为关于英国和苏格兰未来的更广泛的公众辩论提供证据，它们还将有助于澄清和浮出有关独立公投对企业、政策和公众意味着什么及其对行为影响的假设，从而有助于改善和支持商界领袖和政策制定者的决策。这项研究的结果将通过中期奖学金简报、高管风格报告、网站、社交媒体、短视频、新闻稿、ESRC参与、媒体采访和行业演示相结合的方式传播。

This project involves undertaking up to 60 interviews with senior business leaders in medium and large companies from across a range of strategically important sectors and industries operating in Scotland. The aim of the project is to explore business decision-making in conditions of constitutional and political uncertainty in Scotland and the United Kingdom, and to develop a number of alternative scenarios around the different possible outcomes from the Scottish independence vote. For instance, Scottish vote for independence suggests uncertainties around changes in fiscal and monetary policies, regulation of industries, what currency might be adopted, participation in international economic and political agreements and so on. Equally, a vote for the union could also bring with it other uncertainties including the UK's future participation in the European Union, or chronic uncertainty brought about by the prospect of future votes on Scottish independence. Such uncertainties have implications for businesses operating in Scotland, including whether to invest and expand capacity, withdraw from the market, locate operations elsewhere in the UK, Europe or the world, amongst others. Such implications may also vary depending on individual businesses, or between sectors and industries. At present, however, there is a paucity of research indicating how uncertainties are impacting, or are likely to impact on business activity. This proposal, therefore, addresses a pressing need to conduct independent, objective and systematic research into what key uncertainties are of most concern to business leaders and how they are affecting business decisions, the decisions that business leaders are likely to take under different independence vote outcomes, and flowing from this, alternative scenarios that might unfold as a result of the referendum. This research agenda is aimed at generating evidence that helps business decision-makers, policymaking officials and the public to assess and predict the implications of a Scottish independence referendum for business decision-making. By identifying the key types of uncertainty that are of concern to business leaders, developing a decision-making typology of the possible decisions that business leaders might take against the backdrop of constitutional and political uncertainty in the UK and Scotland, and developing alterative scenarios around possible independence vote outcomes, this research proposal also seeks to provide business decision-makers, policymaking officials and the public with decision-making tools that can improve and support decision-making in such circumstances. Such conceptual tools will also be useful for informing the wider public debate on the implications of a Scottish independence vote for business decision-making by bringing research evidence to, in the case of the implications of business decision-making, what has thus far been largely conjecture. The research methods that this project applies are inductive, semi-structured, qualitative interviews designed to surface those uncertainties that are of most concern to business leaders and the extent to which uncertainties are likely to impact on business decision-making. The development of a decision-making typology of decisions against a backdrop of possible independence vote outcome, and the development of alternative scenarios will help to bring evidence to the wider public debate on the future of the UK and Scotland, and they will also be useful for improving and supporting the decision-making by business leaders and policymakers by helping to clarify and surface assumptions about what the independence vote means for business, policy and the public, and its impact on behaviour. The findings from this research will be disseminated through a combination of a mid-Fellowship briefing, executive style report, web-site, social media, short video, press releases, ESRC engagement, media interviews, and industry presentations.