Finance and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries: The Impact of Global Banking Regulation

在全球金融危机之后，工业化国家商定了一系列监管改革，以修复和监管本国的金融体系。鼓励所有国家，包括低收入国家，采用这些新的全球标准。20国集团成员已要求金融稳定委员会、基金组织和世界银行研究全球银行业举措将如何影响发展中经济体和新兴经济体，并将这一领域确定为促进包容性增长的一个关键政策关切。迄今为止，关于这一问题的研究很少，几乎只涉及新兴市场经济体。低收入国家政府和顾问表示迫切需要进行针对低收入国家的分析。该项目将是第一个研究国内和全球层面的政治机构和进程如何影响全球银行业举措对低收入国家的影响及其利用资金流促进包容性增长的能力的项目。核心研究问题是：（1）低收入国家在新的监管标准方面实际上有多大的灵活性，它们需要多大的灵活性，以及在什么条件下（经济和政治;全球、区域和国家）它们应该采用新的监管标准？(2)影响全球标准制定进程和机构的哪些战略有可能为低收入国家带来最佳成果？该项目结合了两种学科方法：政治学和经济学。它结合了定量和定性分析，并将生成新的数据集。产出将包括经同行审查的高质量学术出版物和一系列有针对性的政策简报。该项目旨在通过与面临研究所涉问题的决策者持续直接接触，最大限度地扩大影响。研究问题的设计是在与低收入国家和发展中国家决策者的对话中进行的。我们将继续通过半结构化访谈、年度研讨会和项目专家咨询委员会与决策者接触。理事会成员包括Vivienne Apopo（东非开发银行总干事）、Mthuli Ncube（非洲开发银行首席经济学家）和Amar Bhattacharya（24国集团秘书处主任）。主要受益者是监管机构、高级政府官员和参与促进包容性可持续增长的低收入国家的其他利益攸关方。这包括非洲银行监督员共同体、西非经济和货币联盟（西非经货联盟）银行委员会、安哥拉中央银行监管委员会、越南国家金融监督理事会、老挝银行商业银行监督部以及坦桑尼亚和乌干达的中央银行。我们的影响力战略利用了我们的几位研究人员与LIC关键利益相关者之间现有的密切联系。该项目将提高低收入国家政府在金融监管方面做出选择的能力，并确保全球标准制定过程支持这些选择。它还将提高当地和土著社区的学者和利益攸关方继续在国内开展研究的能力：为此，我们正在与国内研究人员合作开展案例研究，并让南方利益攸关方参与有针对性的传播工作。我们将与达累斯萨拉姆大学经济系等低收入国家的学术机构直接接触（坦桑尼亚）;瓦加第二大学经济系和法律系（布基纳法索）;洛美和卡拉大学经济和管理学院（多哥）; Agostinho Neto大学经济系（安哥拉）;富布赖特学派（越南，哈佛肯尼迪学院和经济大学合作，胡志明市）。该项目将享有现成的开采路线，在全球经济治理方案和牛津大学布拉瓦特尼克政府学院的出色业绩和广泛网络的基础上，

In the wake of the global financial crisis, industrialized countries have agreed a series of regulatory reforms to repair and regulate their own financial systems. All countries, including LICs are encouraged to adopt these new global standards. Members of the G20 have asked the Financial Stability Board, IMF and World Bank to study how global banking initiatives will impact developing and emerging economies, identifying this area as a key policy concern for promoting inclusive growth. To date the scant research on this question addresses almost exclusively emerging market economies. LIC governments and advisers have voiced an urgent need for LIC-specific analysis. This project will be amongst the very first to look at how political institutions and processes - at both the domestic and global levels - shape the impact of global banking initiatives on LICs and their ability to harness financial flows for inclusive growth. The core research questions are: (1) How much de facto flexibility do LICs have in respect of the new regulatory standards, how much do they need, and under what conditions (economic and political; global, regional and national) should they adopt new regulatory standards? (2) What strategies for influencing global standard-setting processes and institutions are likely to yield the best outcomes for LICs?The project combines two disciplinary approaches: political science and economics. It combines quantitative and qualitative analysis, and will generate new datasets. Outputs will include top-quality peer-reviewed academic publications and a series of tailored policy briefs. The project has been designed to maximize impact through continuous direct engagement with policy-makers confronting the problems the research addresses. The design of the research questions has been undertaken in dialogue with LIC and developing country policy-makers. We will continue to engage policy-makers through semi-structured interviews; annual workshops; and through the project's Expert Advisory Board. The Board includes Vivienne Apopo (Director General, East African Development Bank), Mthuli Ncube (Chief Economist, African Development Bank), Amar Bhattacharya (Director, G24 Secretariat).Key beneficiaries are regulators, senior government officials, and other stakeholders in LICs engaged with promoting inclusive, sustainable growth. This includes the Community of African Banking Supervisors (CABS); the Banking Commission of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU); the Regulatory Committee of the Central Bank of Angola; the National Financial Supervision Council (NFSC) of Vietnam; the Commercial Bank Supervision Department of the Bank of Laos; and the Central Banks of Tanzania and Uganda. Our impact strategy leverages existing close links between several of our researchers and key stakeholders in LICs. The project will enhance the capacity of LIC governments to make choices about financial regulation, and to ensure global standard-setting processes support these choices. It will also enhance the capacity of scholars and stakeholders in LICs to continue the research in-country: to this end we are working with in-country researchers on the case studies and engaging Southern stakeholders with targeted dissemination. We will engage directly with academic institutions in LICs, such as the Department of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); the Departments of Economics and Law, University Ouaga II (Burkina Faso); the Economics and Management Faculty of Lomé and Kara Universities (Togo); the Economics Department, Agostinho Neto University (Angola); the Fulbright School (Vietnam, a partnership between Harvard Kennedy School and University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City).The project will enjoy a ready exploitation route, building on the excellent track record and extensive network of the Global Economic Governance Programme (GEG) and the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford.