Local government, economic growth and human development: Chinese lessons for Kenya and Uganda?

许多非洲国家软弱而不稳定，容易发生军事政变或内乱。治理不善和缺乏支持改革所必需的民间社会往往被认为是投资者不愿与非洲接触以及生计减少的主要原因。中国的社会政治制度也严重缺乏自由民主的标准，但事实证明，它能够持续进行经济改革，并在发展中取得显著成就。在一个国家的发展过程中，地方政府可以在采取和执行有助于国家经济增长和促进地方利益的政策方面发挥重要作用。在中国经济改革的大部分时间里，地方政府在推动GDP增长方面发挥了关键作用，尽管现在有人怀疑这种作用是否可持续。在非洲，权力下放是改革的一个共同要素，但重点往往是促进政治解决和改善服务提供，而不是促进经济改革。该项目将考虑中国的经验是否能为非洲地方政府如何成功地促进发展提供见解，尽管政治结构的差异意味着并非所有的经验教训都是可以借鉴的。该项目将根据使用专门调查收集的原始数据进行严格分析，探讨地方治理对中国和两个选定的非洲国家肯尼亚和乌干达的经济和人类发展的影响。研究涵盖四个相互关联的主题领域。首先，对这三个国家的地方政府进行分层随机抽样研究，确定和比较它们的政策环境、结构、政府间关系和主要官员促进扶贫增长的自我激励，并评价它们的业绩和政策成果。第二，从地方政府的分析延伸到调查它们对地方经济增长和贸易品生产的影响，无论是在农业还是制造业。第三，该项目探讨了地方政府在提供保健和教育服务方面的效力和效率。第四，将考虑地方政府对减贫的影响。该项目处理的问题将对国际发展决策产生影响。将查明国家之间和国家内部地方政府作用的差异，并进行比较，以解释三个选定国家地方政府面临的挑战。将从中国的发展进程中找出任何积极或消极的教训，并考虑如何适应或避免这些教训，以使肯尼亚、乌干达和其他低收入非洲国家的地方政府能够积极主动地发展经济。从理论上讲，该项目将解决发展经济学中的一些重大问题和困惑：为什么中国受益于出口导向型工业增长，而非洲却没有？中国如何在没有政治自由化的情况下实现经济自由化和增长，同时仍然否认公民社会的形成？非洲是否可以从这一发展模式中吸收经济要素，同时拥有根本不同的政治社会结构？在工业化国家遭受经济停滞之际，非洲最近的复兴能否继续下去，并可能成为世界下一个增长奇迹？通过改变教条和政策，非洲能加速增长吗？在解决这些问题时，我们能否转向“中国模式”寻求可能的解决方案？该研究团队由来自肯尼亚、乌干达、中国和英国的知名发展经济学家组成。该项目的调查结果可能会通过该小组在世界银行、国际开发部、开发署以及肯尼亚、乌干达和中国政府的国际决策者网络产生重大影响。

Many African states are weak and unstable, prone to military coups or civil unrest. Poor governance and a lack of the civil society necessary to underpin reform are often cited as key reasons why investors are reluctant to engage with Africa and why livelihoods are diminished. The socio-political system in China is also woefully lacking by the standards of liberal democracy, but nonetheless has proved capable of sustained economic reform and remarkable success in development.During the process of a nation's development, local governments can be important actors in adopting and implementing policies which would assist national economic growth and promote local benefits. For much of China's economic reform period, local governments played a key part in driving GDP growth although there are now doubts about whether this role is sustainable. In Africa, decentralization is a common element of reform but often the focus is on fostering political settlements and improved service delivery, rather than promoting economic reform. This project will consider whether China's experiences provide insights into how local government in Africa may successfully contribute to development, although differences in political structures mean that not all lessons may be transferable. The project will conduct rigorous analysis, based on evidence from original data collection using tailor-made surveys, to explore the impacts of local governance on the economic and human development of China and two selected African countries, Kenya and Uganda. The research covers four interlinked topic areas. First, it starts with research on a stratified random sample of local governments in the three countries, identifying and comparing their policy environments, structures, inter-government relationships, and key officials' self-motivation for pro-poor growth, and evaluating their performance and policy outcomes. Second, it extends from the analysis of local governments to investigate their impacts on local economic growth and on production of tradable goods, whether in agriculture or manufacturing. Third, the project explores the effectiveness and efficiency of local government in providing health and education services. Fourth, it will consider the impact of local government on poverty reduction. The project addresses questions which would have impact on policy-making in international development. Differences in the roles of local government between and within countries will be identified, with comparisons being made to explain the challenges facing local governments in the three selected countries. Any lessons, positive or negative, from China's development process will be identified and consideration given to how these might be adapted or avoided in order to enable local governments in Kenya, Uganda and other low income African states to be proactive in economic development. Intellectually, the project will address some of the big questions and puzzles in development economics: why did China benefit from export oriented industrial growth but not Africa? How has China achieved economic liberalisation and growth without political liberalisation and while still denying the formation of a civil society? Could Africa adopt economic elements from this development model while having a fundamentally different political-social structure? While the industrialised world suffers economic stagnation, can Africa's recent renaissance continue and possibly become the world's next growth miracle? By shifting dogma and policy, could Africa accelerate its growth? When tackling such questions, could we turn to the 'Chinese model' for possible solutions?The research team comprises well-regarded development economists from Kenya, Uganda, China and the UK. The findings of this project will be likely generate high impacts through the team's networks of international policy makers in the World Bank, DfID, UNDP and the governments of Kenya, Uganda and China.