The 2013/14 Winter Floods and Policy Change: The dynamics of change in the aftermath of major crises

本项目探讨重大危机后早期阶段对确定国家政策问题的长期对策的重要性。它这样做是为了了解在这种时候对有关社会问题作出强有力的长期反应的可能性。研究重点是2013/14年冬季袭击英国的大洪水，以萨默塞特水平和摩尔为案例研究，研究危机后的治理过程及其结果。萨默塞特郡最近的洪水持续时间较长，引起了政界、媒体和公众的高度关注。有证据表明，不同利益相关者和受洪水影响的公众对洪水的起因以及最适合社会、环境和经济的应对措施的立场和观点存在冲突。该研究将研究解决方案和问题框架的动态和不断发展的背景，以便建立对洪水的直接后果的理解，这是政策变化发生和特定解决方案出现的关键时期。主要目标将是展示这一初期反应期如何影响提出并随后在较长期内实施的各种政策解决方案。我们的研究将以这些具体的研究问题为指导：1)重大国家危机之后的时期是否有可能启动洪水政策和应对方法的变化？2)在受2013/14年洪水影响和参与洪水的众多行动者中，可识别哪些框架？它们如何与具体解决方案和结果联系起来？3)随着时间的推移，哪些框架占主导地位或被边缘化，对长期应对有何影响？4)土地利用、农业政策、气候变化适应和可持续性等长期问题如何纳入和解决？该项目将采用创新的定性和定量方法，深入研究直接受洪水影响的人和负责应对和管理洪水的人的观点和经验。通过重复访谈和具有当地代表性的调查工具，以及视觉方法（即照片引出），该项目将产生丰富的数据集，用于询问研究涉及的危机后时期治理的重要问题。从本案例研究中吸取的经验教训将为政策制定过程提供参考，并有助于制定与受影响的不同社会行动者的价值观、观点和世界观相一致的强有力的长期洪灾应对措施。

This project explores the importance of the early periods following major crises for determining longer-term responses to national policy issues. It does so in order to understand the possibilities at such times for embedding robust, long-term responses to relevant social problems. The research focuses on the major floods which hit the UK during the winter of 2013/14, taking the Somerset Levels and Moors as a case study for examining governance processes and their outcomes in the aftermath of crises. The prolonged nature of these recent floods within Somerset has brought high levels of political, media and wider public attention. There is evidence of conflicting positions and viewpoints on the causes of the floods and the most socially, environmentally and economically appropriate response measures across various stakeholders and flood affected publics. The research will examine this dynamic and evolving context of solution and problem framing in order to build understanding of the immediate aftermath of floods as a key period in which policy change happens and particular solutions emerge. The primary objective will be to show how this initial period of response impacts on the kinds of policy solutions that are put forward and subsequently delivered over the longer term. Our research will be guided by these specific research questions: 1) Do the periods following major national crises offer potential for initiating change in policy and response approaches to floods? 2) What framings are identifiable across the wide range of actors affected by and involved with the 2013/14 floods and how are they linked to specific solutions and outcomes? 3) Which framings dominate or become marginalised over time and with what implications for longer-term responses? 4) How are longer-term issues such as land use, agricultural policy, climate change adaptation and sustainability, incorporated and addressed? The project will use innovative qualitative and quantitative methods to look in-depth at the perspectives and experiences of those that have been directly affected by flooding and those in positions of responsibility for responding and managing floods. Using repeat interviews and a locally representative survey instrument, as well as visual methodologies (i.e. photo-elicitation), the project will generate a rich data set that will be used to interrogate the important questions about governance in periods after crises that the research addresses. The lessons learned from this case study will inform the processes of policy-making as they unfold and contribute to the development of robust, long-term responses to floods that are attuned to the values, perspectives and world views of the different social actors affected.