Understanding NEETs. Individual and institutional determinants of youth inactivity in France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and the UK

2012年，经合组织国家15-29岁的年轻人中不少于15%没有就业、没有接受教育或培训（即所谓的“啃老族”）。NEET比率在各国之间差别很大。啃老族是欧洲国家的一个基本问题。职业生涯早期缺乏活动使啃老族最有可能成为长期社会经济边缘化、犯罪生涯、意外怀孕以及严重的精神和身体健康问题的候选人。2011年，与欧洲啃老族相关的年度总成本超过了1530亿欧元。尽管存在这种社会紧迫性，但我们对啃老族的理论理解仍然有限。我们对啃老族是短暂的还是长期的、成为啃老族的时间（年龄）的差异（15-19岁、20-24岁和25-29岁）以及啃老族人口的异质性知之甚少。制度背景的作用仍未得到充分理解。本项目调查啃老族的模式、原因和后果，以揭示和了解各国的异同。目标是提供新的理论和经验见解，以了解啃老族的时间模式、个人和机构特征的影响以及机构和个人特征之间的相互作用对年轻人进入和退出啃老族的过渡。我们的三个研究问题是：(1)啃老族的模式是什么？啃老族是长期存在的，还是只是从学校到工作过渡的一个过渡阶段？(2)啃老族的原因是什么？(a)个人特征，(b)国家的制度和政策，以及(c)它们之间的相互作用，在多大程度上可以解释15-29岁的年轻人进入和退出啃老族时期的可能性？(3)啃老族的后果是什么？为了回答这些问题，我们将开展一项综合研究计划，对五个国家（即德国、法国、日本、荷兰和英国）的深入纵向分析，以及对24个发达经济体的强有力的跨国分析进行补充。国别研究使我们能够揭示特定的劳动力市场条件、教育机构和政策在多大程度上产生了进入和退出啃老族的不同轨迹，并了解在这些制度背景下个人和家庭背景与这些轨迹的相关性。另外的跨国分析有助于检查国别研究结果的普遍性。拟议的国际项目旨在通过以下创新来克服这些关键问题：a)我们将提出足以解释YUP的常见理论解释，但目前无法解释（某些类型）啃老族。b)我们将使用数据，使我们能够区分不同的啃老族类别和/或啃老族年龄组，并对啃老族概念背后的各种假设进行分析。c)我们将使用纵向研究和序列分析，将啃老族作为一个动态过程而不是单一事件进行分析。d)我们将研究可能影响啃老族发生率和年龄特异性风险的个人因素和机构因素的相互作用，以及啃老族状态短期和长期持续的概率。

In 2012, no less than 15% of young people aged 15-29 in OECD countries were Not in Employment, Education or Training (so-called "NEETs"). The NEET rate varies markedly between countries. NEETs are an essential problem for European countries.Early-career inactivity turns NEETs into the most likely candidates for long-term socioeconomic marginalization, criminal careers, unwanted pregnancies, and grave mental and physical health problems. Total yearly costs associated with European NEETs surpassed Euros 153 billion in 2011.Despite this societal urgency, our theoretical understanding of NEETs is still limited. We know too little about whether NEET is a transitory or long-lasting period, about differences in the timing (age) of becoming NEET (15-19, 20-24, and 25-29), and about the heterogeneity of the NEET population. The role of institutional contexts is also still ill-understood.This project investigates the patterns, causes and consequences of NEET to reveal and understand country similarities and differences. The goal is to provide new theoretical and empirical insights on the temporal patterns of NEET, the impact of individual and institutional characteristics and the interplay between institutions and individual characteristics on young people's transitions into and out of NEET. Our three research questions are:(1) What are the patterns of NEET? Is NEET long-lasting or just a transitory stage in school-to-work transitions?(2) What are the causes of NEET? To what extent can (a) individual characteristics, (b) countries' institutions and policies, and (c) their interactions explain the probability that young people 15-29 make transitions into and out of NEET periods? (3) What are the consequences of being NEET?To answer these questions, we will undertake an integrated research program that supplements in-depth longitudinal analyses of five country cases (i.e., Germany, France, Japan, the Netherlands, and the UK) with robust cross-national analyses of 24 advanced economies. The country studies enable us to reveal the extent to which specific labour market conditions, educational institutions and policies generate different trajectories into and out of NEET, and understand the relevance of individual and family backgrounds for these trajectories in these institutional contexts. Additional cross-national analyses serve to examine the generalizability of findings from the country studies. The proposed international project aims to overcome these critical issues with the following innovations:a) We will advance common theoretical explanations that are adequate for explaining YUP, but which currently fail to explain (certain types) of NEETs.b) We will use data that allows us to distinguish different NEET categories and/or NEET age groups, and conduct analyses on various assumptions behind the NEET concept.c) We will analyse NEET as a dynamic process and not a single event, using longitudinal studies and sequence analyses. d) We will study the interplay of individual and institutional factors, which might affect the incidence and the age-specific risks of NEET periods, as well as the probabilities of short- and long-term durations of NEET-status.