A Panel Survey Study of the 2016 EU Referendum British Election Study Linked Project with UK in a Changing Europe Initiative

英国将于2016年6月23日举行脱欧公投。这次民意调查将是一个千载难逢的事件，提供了一个独特的机会来衡量和理解与欧盟有关的公众舆论，了解影响对欧盟意见的因素，并掌握公投可能反映或促进英国政治正在进行的任何重组的方式（如果有的话）。所要求的资金将为ESRC现有的两项大规模投资——英国选举调查和英国在变化中的欧洲倡议——提供附加价值。这个新项目将提供非常有用的新数据和原始分析，并加强两项主要投资已经开展的知识转移、传播和公众参与活动。通过在公投前和公投后进行的大规模全国民意调查，并以之前的英国选举调查为基础，该项目将研究以下领域：(i)人们是否认为英国目前从欧盟获得了公平的交易，选民认为移民控制依赖于离开欧盟的程度，重新谈判是否成功，以及经济预期取决于离开或留在欧盟。考虑到移民危机的突出性，受访者还将被问及他们对英国移民来源的了解——原成员国、加入国、非欧盟经济移民/政治庇护寻求者和学生。（ii）选民对公投政治背景的理解，包括各方对欧盟立场的了解，以及精英阶层对欧盟分歧的看法，以及结果的约束性。（iii）为了将这些问题的回答嵌入到社会和政治背景中，将会有一系列的党派问题、一般政治知识问题和与公民投票活动中表达的兴趣相关的问题。在媒体聚光灯下进行的辩论可能发挥的重要作用，将在投票前的整个时期通过媒体消费问题加以审查。在全民公决中竞争各方的动员是另一个可能需要审查的重要领域。（iv）脱欧公投结果的不确定性可能是一个重要因素，与脱欧相关的风险也是一个重要因素——正如英国经济研究所对苏格兰公投的研究所证明的那样。为了解决这个问题，我们将包括风险规避的措施——这可能是对投票个体差异的重要影响——不确定性可能是一个重要的背景因素。关于全民投票的后果，不可避免地有一个问题，即结果是否会得到失败者的同意。人们对公投合法性的认知可能会产生明显的政治后果。因此，2016年和2017年的公投后调查将包括询问这些问题的问题。这将有助于对公投结果的进一步后果进行研究，包括在投票支持留在欧盟的情况下，公投是会安抚还是加剧反欧盟政治；反欧盟情绪在多大程度上等同于对英国独立党（UKIP）的支持；以及公投后围绕欧盟问题加强政治重组的可能性。自20世纪80年代末工党对欧盟的政策逆转以来，这种对英国选举格局的潜在重塑一直在酝酿之中，它对主要政党的内部一致性产生了影响，尤其是对保守党来说，欧盟一直是一个长期存在的、有时具有高度破坏性的困境，这对英国的政党制度可能是根本性的。

Britain will hold a referendum on its membership of the European Union on June 23rd 2016. The poll will be a once in a generation event providing a unique opportunity to guage and understand public opinion as it pertains to the EU, to understand the factors that shape opinion towards the EU, and to grasp the ways, if any, in which the referendum might reflect, or contribute to, any ongoing realignment of British politics. The funds requested will provide added value out of two existing large scale ESRC investments - the British Election Survey and the UK in a changing Europe initiative. This new project will provide highly useful new data, original analysis, and reinforce the knowledge transfer, dissemination and public engagement activities the two major investments already undertake. Using a large scale national opinion surveys in the run-up to the referendum and following it, and building on previous British Election Surveys, the project will examine the following areas:(i) whether people believe the UK currently gets a fair deal from the EU, the extent to which voters perceive immigration control as dependent on leaving the EU, whether renegotiation is successful, and economic expectations conditional on leaving or staying in the EU. Given the likely salience of the immigration crisis, respondents will also be asked about their knowledge about where immigrants to the UK come from - original member states, accession states, non-EU economic migrants/political asylum seekers, and students. (ii) voters' understanding of the political context of the referendum, including knowledge about the EU position each of the parties holds as well as perceptions of elite division over EU, and the binding nature of the outcome.(iii) in order to embed responses to these questions in social and political context there will be batteries of partisanship questions, general political knowledge questions, and questions related to expressed interest in the referendum campaign. The potentially important role of debates played out in the full glare of the media spotlight would be examined through media consumption questions across the period leading up to the vote. Mobilization by competing sides in the referendum is another potentially significant area to be examined. (iv) The uncertainty of what would happen in the event of a vote to leave the EU is likely to be an important factor, as are the risks associated with leaving - as demonstrated by the BES study with respect to the Scottish Referendum. To address this we will include measures of risk aversion- this is likely to be an important influence on individual differences in voting - and uncertainty is likely to be a significant contextual factor. (v) With regard to the consequences of the Referendum, there is inevitably the question of whether the outcome will obtain the loser's consent. The perceived legitimacy of the referendum is likely to have pronounced political consequences. The post-referendum surveys in 2016 and 2017 would therefore include questions that enquire about these issues. This will facilitate further consequences of the referendum outcome to be examined, including whether the referendum will placate or exacerbate anti-EU politics in the case of a vote to remain in the EU; the extent to which anti-EU sentiment becomes synonymous with UKIP support, or otherwise; and the possibility of a strengthening political realignment around the EU issue after the referendum. This potential reshaping of the British electoral landscape has been in train since Labour's policy reversal on the EU in the late 1980s, and the implications it carries for the internal coherence of the major parties, particularly the Conservatives for whom the EU has been a long-standing and at times highly destructive dilemma, are potentially fundamental for Britain's party system.