The Financialisation of Urban Development and Associated Financial Risks in China

近几十年来，中国的金融体系通过所谓的“土地融资”（土地贷）在住房、土地和基础设施开发方面促进了经济的快速增长。中国住房、土地和基础设施的“金融化”——利用金融工具将建筑环境转化为投资机会——为中国经济带来了动力和活力，并带来了财富积累。房地产融资工具，如房地产投资信托基金（REITS）、抵押贷款证券化、反向抵押贷款和基础设施领域的公私合作伙伴关系（PPP），最近被发明出来。另一方面，传统的房地产金融产品，如家庭抵押贷款和房地产贷款，受益于新的互联网金融。中国房地产金融已进入“金融爆炸”阶段。然而，具体的渠道、复杂的安排和新的手段还不完全清楚。本研究项目旨在调查住房、土地和基础设施实际上是如何融资的，什么是新的金融工具，在多大程度上存在“金融化”趋势，以及与这种转变相关的风险是什么。我们根据正式和非正式（“影子银行”）部门在房地产开发中的参与形式和程度，研究了最近的金融化趋势。房地产投资信托基金和公私合作伙伴关系的最新发展将被审查，以显示金融资本流入住房，土地和基础设施项目。我们将探讨在缺乏更发达的金融体系的情况下，中国房地产繁荣是如何融资的，以及金融部门在多大程度上促进了住房和土地资产的整体升值。我们还将试图了解金融化对家庭、企业和地方政府财政的潜在影响（即“地方债务”问题），以及影响金融稳定的主要因素是什么。该项目调查了三个层面的融资机制：项目和企业、地方政府和个人家庭。我们选择了六个案例城市：沿海地区，上海和深圳；中部地区：郑州、长沙；西部地区：重庆和成都。在项目层面，我们将与开发商、房地产经纪人和当地政府官员进行深入访谈，以了解这些项目复杂的财务安排。在地方政府（市）层面，我们将研究建设环境融资的制度环境和政策，包括住房公积金的参与。在家庭层面，该项目将对这些城市的3000名房主进行调查，以了解家庭获得金融部门的情况。本研究项目将评估中国住房、土地和基础设施领域最近的金融化趋势，并对不断变化的金融模式、其动态和新的制度环境提供细致入微的理解。该项目将研究这些领域的新兴金融产品和新渠道及其运行机制。该项目将重点关注家庭金融行为，以了解房地产金融化的新趋势及其对住房消费、投资行为和就业偏好的影响。该项目将进一步评估宏观经济影响，如对中国金融体系、金融产品创新、财政政策和公司投资的影响。最后，这些发现将导致与金融化相关的潜在风险评估和风险管理建议。

The Chinese financial system has fostered rapid economic growth in recent decades through so-called 'land-based financing' (tudi chaizhen) in housing, land and infrastructure development. The 'financialisation' of Chinese housing, land and infrastructure - the use of financial instruments to convert the built environment into investment opportunities - generates momentum and vitality in the Chinese economy and has led to wealth accumulation. Real estate financing instruments such as the real estate investment trust (REITS), mortgage securitisation, reverse mortgages and public-private partnerships (PPP) in infrastructure have been recently invented. On the other hand, traditional real estate financial products such as household mortgages and real estate loans benefit from new internet-based finance. Chinese real estate finance has now entered a phase of 'financial explosion'. However, the concrete channels, complex arrangements and new instruments are not entirely known. This research project aims to investigate how housing, land and infrastructure are actually financed, what are the new financial instruments, to what extent there is a trend of 'financialisation', and what are the risks associated with this transformation. We examine the recent trend of financialisation in terms of the forms and extent of the involvement of both the formal and the unofficial ('shadow banking') sectors in real estate development. Recent developments in REITS and PPP will be examined to show the inflow of financial capital in housing, land, and infrastructure projects. We explore how the Chinese housing boom has been financed in the absence of a more developed financial system, and to what extent the financial sector has contributed to the overall appreciation of housing and land assets. We will also try to understand the potential impacts of financialisation on households, enterprises and local government finances (i.e. the issue of 'local debt') and what are the main factors affecting financial stability. The project investigates three levels of financing mechanisms: projects and enterprises, local governments, and individual households. We choose six case cities: in the coastal region, Shanghai and Shenzhen; the central region: Zhengzhou and Changsha; the western region: Chongqing and Chengdu. At the project level, we will conduct in-depth interviews with developers, real estate agents and local government officials so as to understand the complex financial arrangements of these projects. At the local government (city) level, we will examine the institutional environment and policies regarding built environment finance, including the involvement of housing provident funds. At the household level, the project will conduct a survey of 3,000 homeowners in these cities to understand household access to the financial sector. This research project will assess the recent trend of financialisation in Chinese housing, land and infrastructure sectors and provide a nuanced understanding of the changing financial mode, its dynamics and the new institutional environment. The project will examine emerging financial products and new channels in these sectors and their operational mechanisms. The project will focus on household financial behaviour to understand the new trend of financialisation of real estate and its impact on housing consumption, investment behaviour, and job preference. The project will further assess macroeconomic implications such as the impact on the Chinese financial system, financial product innovation, fiscal policies and company investment. Finally, these findings will lead to an assessment of the potential risks associated with financialisation and recommendations for risk management.